Republicans have a plan to take the Senate. A hard-right Montana lawmaker could crash the party
HELENA, Mont. — Montana Republicans gathered in a hotel ballroom this weekend with the goal of unifying ahead of the 2024 elections and defeating the incumbent Democrat, three-term U.S. Sen. Jon Tester. But before the party even got started, it was crashed by conservative U.S. Rep. Matt Rosendale, who entered the race in defiance of Republican leaders.
Rosendale’s move exposed deep rifts within the Republican Party in Montana, at a time when Republicans can’t afford to do so. Toppling Tester is a key part of their strategy to take control of the closely divided Senate in the November elections by targeting vulnerable Democratic seats in Montana, Ohio and West Virginia.
Outside observers and even some Republicans say an intraparty skirmish ahead of Montana’s June primary could undermine those hopes.
Senate Republican leaders — including Sen. Steve Daines of Montana, who heads the National Republican Senatorial Committee — are backing a former U.S. Navy SEAL over Rosendale, who is considered too divisive to call on the large contingent of independent voters of the state.
Rosendale’s entry into the Senate contest ended months of speculation that the far-right lawmaker wanted a rematch, six years after the 2018 defeat by Tester.
“I’ve won two elections since then,” Rosendale, 63, told reporters after filing paperwork to formally enter the race on Friday. “And most importantly, my name ID and trust factor have increased dramatically. People know who I am.”
A large group of conservative state lawmakers showed up for Rosendale’s filing and loudly cheered him on, underscoring his grassroots support in the state.
A few hours later and several blocks away, Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte took the stage in a Helena hotel ballroom to blast former SEAL and political newcomer Tim Sheehy as the party’s best chance to defeat Tester. Behind the Republican governor hung a poster with the GOP slogan: “We are better, together!”
As Gianforte’s speech ended, a buzz went through the crowd: Former President Donald Trump had just endorsed Sheehy in a social media post. “He probably heard my speech,” Gianforte joked when an aide told him about the endorsement.
Rosendale, who supported Trump in 2018 and again in 2020, responded to the setback by reaffirming his loyalty to the former president. “I love President Trump,” he said when asked about the endorsement.
Rosendale was one of eight conservative lawmakers who ousted House Speaker Kevin McCarthy last year. He suggested at the event in Helena that he hopes to do the same with Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who derided Rosendale as part of a “uni-party” of Republican and Democratic leaders who control legislation in Congress.
Sheehy, 38, founded an aerial firefighting company in Belgrade, Montana, that relies heavily on federal government contracts. He said in an interview that he decided to enter politics after the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
His lack of political experience is an asset, he said, because it means he is not “tainted by years in politics.”
“Americans in Montana are tired of the same people in Washington going back and forth again and again,” he said. “I bring a fresh perspective. I have been a small business owner and created over 400 jobs.”
The federal contracts that helped pay for many of those jobs irritate Rosendale’s supporters.
“I see a pretty big conflict when your livelihood is determined by government contracts,” said Theresa Manzella, a Republican senator and chair of the Montana Freedom Caucus, a group of conservative lawmakers politically connected to Rosendale.
But state Rep. George Nikolakakos argued that Rosendale’s nomination would play into the hands of Democrats.
“Rosendale had its chance in ’18 and lost,” said Nikolakakos, a Republican who represented a swing district in Great Falls. “I would say the people who are going to elect Rosendale and the people who want Rosendale to be nominated are the Democrats.”
Those Democrats are encouraging division in the Republican Senate race, hoping it will drain Republican funds and alienate independent voters before the general election. The state Democratic Party responded to Rosendale’s announcement by declaring that the Republican primary would be “a bloody brawl.”
Tester, 67, is a farmer and former state lawmaker who was first elected to the Senate in 2006 after a victory over a three-term Republican incumbent. The moderate lawmaker also won his next two contests by narrow margins, including a 3.5 percentage point victory over Rosendale.
Montana has moved sharply to the right politically since Tester first took office, leaving him increasingly vulnerable with each election cycle.
Trump defeated Biden by 16 percentage points in Montana four years ago and Tester is now the only Democrat holding statewide office there — an abrupt reversal from last decade when Republicans faced a similar situation.
The candidates and outside political groups have already spent more than $18 million on ads in the early months of the Senate campaign. That will increase rapidly between now and the November election, with another $95 million in reserved ads, according to AdImpact, a company that tracks political ads.
The breakneck pace of spending also makes the race one of the most expensive political contests in Montana history, rivaling a 2020 contest between Daines and then-Gov. Steve Bullock, which spent more than $118 million.