Scientists predict 60% chance of radio blackouts after sun unleashes solar flare toward Earth

Experts today predict a 60 percent chance of radio blackout after the sun unleashed an extremely powerful solar flare, sending it towards Earth.

Minor to moderate blackouts could last through Thursday, with the potential for a “strong” disruption that will affect low-frequency navigation signals and result in a loss of radio contact, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.

Solar flares are bursts of electromagnetic radiation that explode from sunspots or dark areas of the sun’s surface, caused by strong magnetic fields.

When solar flares erupt, they send radiation away from the sun’s surface at the speed of light. If that radiation hits Earth, it could disrupt the ionosphere, or the upper layer of the atmosphere that supports radio communications.

This most recent eruption was an X class – the most intense kind. The explosion erupted from the sun’s surface on Sunday and was already causing shortwave radio interference over southern Africa.

This impending explosion of solar plasma and radiation could also bring the Northern Lights to parts of northern Montana, North Dakota and Minnesota, although the chances are slim.

Areas of northeastern Washington, northern Idaho, northeastern South Dakota, northern Wisconsin and upper Michigan may also see them, but these locations are even more unlikely.

The Northern Lights – also known as aurora – are created when charged particles from the Sun interact with Earth’s magnetic field, decorating the night sky with vibrant curtains of green, pink, red, yellow, blue and violet.

The X-class solar flare erupted from the sun’s surface on Sunday, peaking around 4:06 a.m. ET.

It was accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME), or a huge bubble of solar plasma and radiation erupting from the sun’s corona.

The CME could provide a glimpse into Earth’s magnetosphere – the region around our planet dominated by its electromagnetic field – but only mild impacts are expected, according to space weather physicist Tamitha Skov.

‘Despite a beautiful X2.2 flame earlier today, the sun remains poorly focused. The launched solar storm will graze the Earth in the west,” Skov wrote in an X-post on Sunday.

‘Unfortunately, the coming fast solar wind currents may deflect the structure even further westwards. Expect only mild impacts by the afternoon of December 11.”

Scientists are still analyzing the CME to better understand its trajectory and potential impact.

Meanwhile, the solar flare is expected to continue causing radio interference this week.

When a solar flare is strong enough, it emits extreme amounts of X-ray and ultraviolet radiation that ionize (or charge) the lower layers of the ionosphere.

Minor to moderate blackouts may persist through Thursday, with a chance of ‘strong’ disruption to low-frequency navigation signals and resulting in loss of radio contact

This impending explosion of solar plasma and radiation could also bring the Northern Lights to parts of the northern US, although the chances of visibility are slim

This can cause high-frequency radio signals to deteriorate or be completely absorbed, leading to a radio blackout, according to NASA.

“Users of high-frequency (HF) radio signals may experience temporary degradation or complete signal loss across much of the sunlit side of Earth,” NOAA said Sunday.

Solar flares are divided into lettered groups based on how big they are, with X being the most powerful, followed by M, C and the faintest, B.

Within each class, a numerical scale from one to nine provides more detail about the intensity of the flare. Sunday’s eruption was an X2.2.

Only X and M flares are strong enough to affect Earth and cause communications disruptions.

The sun is currently at solar maximum, or the peak of its 11-year cycle, marked by increased solar activity.

That means events like solar flares and CMEs are especially common right now.

On October 15, NASA, NOAA and… the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel confirmed that the sun has reached its maximum solar period, which could continue into the coming year.

That means many more powerful outbursts, CMEs, and other solar events are likely to follow.