PETER VAN ONSELEN: Greens leader Adam Bandt has Anthony Albanese exactly where he wants him – and it’s a nightmare scenario for the economy

The Greens have a list of major Australian companies in mind that they want to hit with new corporate taxes if Labor needs the minor party’s support to govern after the next election.

GreenLeft leader Adam Bandt will demand that his new taxes on mining companies, big banks and retailers come into effect in return for guaranteeing supplies to a minority Labour government in the event of a split parliament at the next election.

The ransom demands create a nightmare scenario for both businesses and the Australian economy. But Labor insiders say the biggest nightmare is reserved for the impact the move could have on the Labor Party’s chances at the next election.

Anthony Albanese’s government currently has a razor-thin majority and opinion polls suggest it will be unable to retain it after the next election, scheduled for May next year. The Prime Minister has privately told people he expects Labor to be reduced to a minority government after the next election.

The nightmare of this new scenario that the Greens have created is the damaging impact that such a radical policy change would have on the economy if it were ever implemented. And the chances of that happening are of course increased if Labor is re-elected.

The Labour Party must now decide how to handle the Greens’ new approach to politics so that its chances of re-election are not diminished.

If the party completely rejects the small party’s attempt, it runs the risk of being seen as a pale imitation of the Greens in the eyes of left-leaning voters.

If Labour shows any sympathy for the agenda the Greens are pushing, it will lose the political centre ground. And that’s without even looking too risky to support for mainstream swinging voters.

Greens leader Adam Bandt (pictured) will not support a minority Labour government without policy concessions

If Team Albo tries to take a right-wing position to deflect criticism, it will join forces with the Greens after the next election. To voters who are ideologically right-wing, it will probably come across as a pale imitation of the Liberal Party.

While the Prime Minister is likely to deny he will ever give in to Greens demands, Australians know that Labor cuts deals with the Greens when election results are close.

It did so federally in 2010 and has done so regularly in Tasmania after state elections. In Tasmania, the Greens and Labor have governed in coalition on many occasions in recent decades, with Green MPs even serving as ministers.

It is possible that Brandt will seek to force similar concessions from an Albanian minority government if parliament fails to vote, allowing Green ministers in a coalition government with the Labour Party to push through policies that the small party supports.

The challenges facing the Labour Party following the announcement of the Greens’ new radical policies are therefore numerous and diverse.

Voters in inner-city Labor seats will be seduced by the policies the Greens are advocating, putting Labor at risk of losing even more seats to the small left party in the inner-city areas of Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane.

Labor will also face criticism from the Coalition that voting Labor now carries greater risks than before. Peter Dutton will argue that Labor can implement policies on the other side of a close election that it denies supporting in the run-up to the election, once it becomes dependent on the Greens for political survival.

Anthony Albanese (pictured) will have to stick to the Greens’ radical policy agenda if he loses his majority at the next election

Expect this to be a key election issue for the coalition and one that will dominate political advertising.

Remember, Albanese already has form when it comes to saying one thing before an election and doing something completely different afterwards. Labor walked back on its promises on pensions and tax cuts in phase three that it made before the 2022 election.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers recently described the broken promise of the third phase of tax cuts as his “proudest moment” in politics. When a politician regards a broken promise as his proudest moment, voters have a right to lose confidence in what they do or do not promise to do in the future. Their word is no longer their bond.

It is therefore not surprising that floating voters now assume that supporting Labor could sway the Greens and their new radical policy agenda to their advantage, given the new strategy Bandt is pursuing.

The Albanian government has been seriously troubled by Bandt’s move. The chances of electoral success for this small party are high, as it (unlike the Labour Party) only needs to appeal to a small voter base to achieve its electoral goals.

It is hard to find a consistent way to break through the political curveball thrown Albo’s way. Traditional left voters already lament the Labor Party’s failures on everything from Gaza to emissions cuts to standing up for higher education and social security funding.

But when it comes to debates within the mainstream, Labor struggles to hold the centre ground on issues such as the economy and national security. The Coalition focuses on failures in areas such as housing and immigration, including claiming ministerial scalps in the recent reshuffle.

Solutions that might satisfy undecided voters disillusion the left-wing Labour Party base, sending them towards the Greens in the election.

Within the highest echelons of Team Labor, fears are growing in all of these strategic areas.

The position of power that the Greens now occupy if the next parliament does not proceed puts Albo and the Labour Party in a very precarious position.