Putin’s other struggle…for influence in Africa: how the Kremlin’s dark meddling is paying off after protesters with Russian flags took to the streets in Niger to support a coup against the government and its Western allies

‘Down with France, long live Putin’: that was the message scrawled on banners by protesters waving the Russian flag in Niger after a coup toppled the government last week.

For Western forces in the country – including the French and Americans – it was a moment of deja vu, as almost exactly the same scene played out around them in neighboring Mali just a year earlier.

In fact, four countries in the Sahel region — a strip of land just below the Sahara — have now kicked out their governments and Western-backed security forces in favor of military juntas openly affiliated with or provoked by Russia.

Against them is the shrinking ECOWAS alliance, led by Nigeria, which has promised to spread democracy and has now threatened war against Niger’s ruling clique.

Africa is quickly emerging as a second front in Putin’s war against the West and, unlike the conflict in Ukraine, this is one that Moscow is clearly winning.

“The war in Ukraine has clearly not diminished Russia’s desire to act opportunistically, including in Africa,” researchers at the US think tank Carnegie Endowment for Global Peace wrote earlier this year.

In fact, the break of Vladimir Putin’s regime with the West reinforces Moscow’s recent outreach to different parts of the continent…

“Working with foreign partners in Africa to counter what (Russia) called ‘European colonialism’ is officially part of Russia’s foreign policy.

“The (Russian) language is blatantly selfish, but many in the region are open to such stories out of frustration at the West’s failed policies.”

According to research by the African Center, Russia has sought influence in nearly two dozen countries, from Algeria to Angola, using a heady mix of political meddling, disinformation campaigns and military intervention.

That has given the Kremlin a number of powerful allies, such as South Africa, which was accused in May of shipping arms to Russia.

But it is in North Africa, and in particular the Sahel, where Russia has become most influential thanks to the presence of the Wagner Group.

Wagner, the mercenary army led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, has sent thousands of mercenaries to the region from 2017 and to this day.

Prigozhin has already begun courting Niger’s new junta after sending 2,000 men to Mali, and is also courting Burkina Faso.

But its main base of operations is in Sudan – where violent fighting broke out recently between the military – with more troops deployed in Libya and the Central African Republic.

Ostensibly sent to fight groups like ISIS, research shows that Wagner has instead propped up fragile regimes with terrifying levels of violence against civilians and political opponents.

In return, the group has been granted a license to loot natural resources such as gold, diamonds and timber – and may now have an eye on Niger’s uranium mines.

All this has brought Prigozhin hundreds of millions of dollars, while Moscow has gained effective control over states in a strategically important region.

As researchers at the London School of Economics pointed out, “A good example of Russian state take-up in Africa is the Central African Republic (CAR).

President Faustin-Archange Touadéra brokered a deal with Russia for weapons, mercenaries and a protection force in exchange for access to CAR diamond and gold mines.

“A Russian, Valery Zakharov, is now the country’s national security adviser.

“Once Russia gained control of the state, France, the CAR’s longtime supporter, was forced to withdraw, further advancing Moscow’s geostrategic interests.”

Meanwhile, the ECOWAS alliance is in the background – forced to expel Guinea, Burkina Faso and Niger because of the coups – while the West’s military presence is rapidly dwindling.

Western broadcasts to Africa go back decades and, in the case of France, to the days of the empire when many of the countries in the Sahel were their colonial territories.

That meant that after gaining independence, many of those same countries turned to France and its allies to provide security for their fledgling governments.

But the history of colonialism and, more recently, failed military operations have caused relations to deteriorate rapidly.

France’s last major deployment to the Sahel, Operation Barkhane, began in 2014 with the ambitious goal of driving jihadist groups out of part of the Sahel region.

But the operation lasted for years, provided no safety for the local population and caused a backlash against Western forces.

Three of the original five countries the mission was supposed to protect have since staged coups: Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.

Meanwhile, Chad, Barkhane’s base of operations, saw an attempted coup in 2021, which leaked US intelligence shows was assisted by Wagner.

And the problem looks set to get worse as Putin, isolated from the world stage thanks to the war in Ukraine, is likely to turn to Africa for political support in his war against the West.

Meanwhile, Prigozhin, who recently pulled out of the war in Ukraine and attempted another coup against Russia’s own army, has said Africa will be his focus going forward.

“Russia has invested minimal time and money in Africa, but it is still making steady progress in several countries,” the Carnegie Institute added.

It has had the most success in internationally isolated and deeply troubled Sahel states, and has struggled to penetrate several African democracies.

“Nevertheless, Moscow has proven that it can take advantage of governance shortcomings, instability and security vacuum in Africa.”

The researchers continued: ‘The main problem for the people of the region is not Russia, but the desire for greater security and economic and social conditions.

The Wagner Group can provide an easy solution and help individual regimes consolidate their power.

“However, tackling the true causes of regional instability – poor governance, human suffering, the devastating effects of climate change and armed jihadist groups – requires a multilateral solution with adequate resources.”

That could offer Western countries the chance to outsmart Moscow and regain influence in the region.

But unless they can overcome the grievances of the past and quickly formulate a plan, they may find that Russia and its proxies are already too entrenched to displace.