Vladimir Putin could use nuclear weapons in Ukraine if he feels defeat is imminent, a leading think tank has warned.
Moscow has raised fresh concern in recent days about its willingness to deploy devastating weapons, announcing last week that it would move nuclear missiles to Belarus before beginning exercises today with its Yars intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) systems.
in a research work For the UK’s main foreign policy think tank Chatham House, Russia and Eurasia expert Keir Giles has warned that there is a “non-zero” chance that Putin will attempt to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
He wrote: ‘A nuclear attack could be ordered if there is no longer any possibility of claiming a conventional victory and a powerful destructive strike against Ukraine is perceived as the only means of avoiding the admission of clear defeat.
“The moment when Putin feels his options are exhausted is likely to be the most dangerous decision point,” he concluded.
A rocket is launched from a missile system as part of a ground-launched ICBM test launched from the Plesetsk facility in northwest Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a Security Council meeting in Moscow, Russia, Friday, March 24, 2023.
Giles pointed out that nuclear weapons would be of little military use on the ground in Ukraine, given that the front line stretches hundreds of kilometers and that any attack would not only kill Ukrainians, but also irradiate the land and make it uninhabitable. for the Russian troops.
This means that an attack is unlikely to be carried out to achieve military objectives, but rather as a “retaliatory response intended simply to cause misery and destruction in the Ukraine in recognition of Russia’s failure to conquer it.”
“The reason is that if Russia can’t have the Ukraine, nobody can,” Giles reasoned.
The newspaper added that the barriers preventing Moscow from launching a nuclear weapon, such as the risk of retaliatory strikes, further nuclear proliferation among its enemies and the prospect of becoming a pariah on the world stage, do not take into account the possibility of that Putin is incapable of making rational decisions.
“The above conditions must be viewed with the caveat that they assume that President Putin can make a rational decision based on an objective assessment of his and Russia’s situation.
“They do not take into account the possibility that Putin is obsessed and/or delusional, or that he simply does not receive a clear or accurate picture from those around him about world events and the progress of his war.
“Nor is it impossible that this problem could be exacerbated by Putin’s own state of physical or mental health… Factors such as these may contribute to indicators of a widening disconnect between Putin and reality.”
In order to dissuade Putin from considering deploying nuclear weapons, Giles argues that the US, UK and Western allies should not accept nuclear noise from Moscow and instead make clear the consequences that Putin himself would face.
Topol-M nuclear missile at a Victory Day parade in Moscow, Russia
“If Russia is allowed to succeed through nuclear intimidation, this validates the concept of nuclear coercion not only for Moscow but also for other aggressive, assertive or rogue states around the world.
‘The non-zero probability [of Putin using nuclear weapons] it should be further reduced by reconsidering the messaging of the US and its allies regarding the likely results of nuclear use.
“In particular, this message should highlight that… a nuclear attack would in fact trigger processes that would be far beyond Russia’s control because they would involve responses and reactions not just from the US but from the entire world.
“This requires a clearer and more unequivocal statement of intent by the US and its allies that goes beyond a promise of ‘dire consequences’ and instead touches on interests of personal importance not only to Vladimir Putin but also to for its top military leaders. ‘
In keeping with the Kremlin’s longstanding tactic of nuclear posturing, Russia began exercises today with its Yars ICBM system and several thousand troops, its Defense Ministry said on Wednesday.
President Putin has set out to make the Yars system, which replaced the Topol system, part of Russia’s “invincible weapons” and the mainstay of the ground component of its nuclear arsenal.
“In total, more than 3,000 military personnel and some 300 pieces of equipment are involved in the exercises,” the Defense Ministry said in a statement on the Telegram messaging service.
The drills involve the Strategic Missile Forces comprehensive control check of the Omsk missile formation along with a command and staff exercise with the Novosibirsk missile formation equipped with the Yars systems.
Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko during a meeting at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow. Last week Putin announced that he intends to deploy tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus.
During the exercises, Yars mobile systems will carry out exercises in three Russian regions, the ministry said, without identifying the regions.
“In addition, the strategic missile launchers will carry out a set of measures to camouflage and counter modern aerial reconnaissance means in cooperation with formations and units of the Central Military District and the Aerospace Forces.”
There are few confirmed tactical and technical characteristics of the Yars mobile ICBM systems, which reportedly have an operational range of 7,500 miles.
According to military bloggers, the systems can carry multiple independently aimable nuclear warheads and can be mounted on trucks or deployed in silos.
Last week, Putin announced that he intends to deploy tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus in what appeared to be another attempt to raise the stakes in the Ukraine conflict.
Belarus said it had decided to host Russian tactical nuclear weapons in response to Western sanctions and what it said was a military buildup by NATO member states near its borders.
US President Joe Biden indicated he would be concerned by the decision, although the United States said it had seen no indication that Russia was moving any closer to using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.