According to sources, Vladimir Putin is reportedly preparing a contingency plan in case Russia suffers more losses in the war against Ukraine.
The Russian presidential administration sent a manual to the Kremlin’s team of propagandists, urging his people not to “underestimate” Ukraine’s planned counter-offensive, nor to spread the idea that Kiev is not ready for it.
It comes as Ukraine plans a counter-offensive on the east side of the Dnipro River near the city of Kherson.
Infiltration of the area is an attempt to dislodge Russian troops from positions they use to shell Ukrainian-occupied Kherson.
Independent news outlet Meduza – which has obtained a copy of the manual – said the aim is to give the Russians morale regardless of the outcome of the counter-offensive.
Vladimir Putin is reportedly preparing a contingency plan in case Russia suffers more losses in the war against Ukraine
Rescue workers work at the site of a residential area badly damaged by a Russian missile strike, amid the Russian attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, May 3, 2023
‘If the offensive fails, you can say: the army [of Russia] skilfully repulsed an attack superior in strength.”
But if the Ukrainian army were to take back territories and win victories “with the help of weapons from the US and Europe,” then Russia’s losses should be “understandable” as they face the “entire west,” according to the sources.
Propagandists are advised to use material to show citizens that Russia is upgrading buildings, hospitals and schools on its own territory, rather than pouring money into new ones.
It is clear that there will be problems with the economy, and it is clear why. Spending on the “special military operation” is not going anywhere,” a source close to Putin said. ‘It is better not to show how much has been taken in specific amounts [for the new regions].’
It’s a quick turn from last year, when spin doctors tried to convince the populace that Russia was on track to resuscitate itself as a great empire as it takes control of Ukraine.
Ukraine is believed to be assembling up to 100,000 men in at least 12, but as many as 18 combat brigades to face the Russians in the coming assault.
Their army has been issued with about 200 western tanks, 800 armored vehicles and 150 artillery guns – a total of up to 400 tanks, 1,600 vehicles and 300 guns would be held.
Ukrainian soldiers pull a Soviet-made 82mm gun mortar into a truck as units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces train for a critical and imminent spring counter-offensive against Russian forces, which invaded Ukraine’s Donbas region 14 months earlier , on April 26, 2023
A view across the Kerch Strait shows a fuel depot on fire near the Crimean bridge in the village of Volna in Russia’s Krasnodar region, as seen from a coastline in Crimea, May 3, 2023
The status of Russia is not so clear. Based on leaked casualty figures, Putin could have as few as 100,000 men or even 290,000 in Ukraine.
The leaks suggest he only has about 500 tanks left on the battlefield, but he may be able to get more out of storage. The number of armored vehicles and artillery is unclear.
While Ukraine’s plans are closely monitored, Mick Ryan, a general who recently retired from the Australian army, told Mail Online that Kiev has three options.
“First, they can launch a single major attack, using everything they’ve got; second, they could divide that force between simultaneous attacks in the south and east; or third, they can decide on small-scale attacks in both the south and the east, which are not coordinated.’
General Stephen Twitty, retired from the US military, believes Ukraine will choose option three, which is incremental, slower and more sustainable.
“Ukraine will go with what has worked for them in the past,” he said. “What the Ukrainians have been successful at is small-scale maneuvers using infantry, armor and artillery to attack Russian forces in small areas and gain ground.”
General Ryan himself believes it will be a mix of options two and three.
At 2 a.m. this morning, an oil storage depot exploded close to a bridge connecting Russia to annexed Crimea, following a drone strike believed to have been orchestrated by Ukraine.
A tank containing the fuel caught fire in the harbor near the Black Sea village of Volna.
The suspected drone attack comes after saboteurs derailed two Russian freight trains in recent days and destroyed power cables with explosives.
Russia’s security service FSB has today arrested members of a Ukrainian sabotage network planning attacks on Russian-occupied Crimea, according to Russian news agencies.
“The FSB has broken up the activities of a network of Ukrainian military intelligence agents who are planning major sabotage and terrorist attacks in Crimea,” they said.