Vladimir Putin has been significantly weakened by the remarkable mutiny of the Wagner mercenary group, experts say – despite the militia leader announcing on Saturday that he had agreed to halt his advance on Moscow and would himself go into exile in Belarus.
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s uprising posed the greatest challenge to Putin in his more than two decades in power.
It died down on Saturday — but not before Prigozhin’s men took the southern city of Rostov-on-Don and came within 125 miles of Moscow.
According to the deal announced by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Prigozhin will go to neighboring Belarus and charges of initiating an armed uprising will be dropped.
The government also said it would not prosecute fighters who participated.
Prigozhin’s decision to abandon his challenge to Putin’s power remains mysterious and there was much speculation on Saturday night as to why he had withdrawn and what the intense and surreal uprising was all about.
But while Putin appeared to have won this skirmish, Russian analysts said the 70-year-old – who has been president or prime minister continuously since 1999 – was wounded in the battle.
Garry Kasparov, the chess champion who has become one of Vladimir Putin’s fiercest critics, said the Russian leader was “humiliated” by Prigozhin’s advance.
Vladimir Putin has been severely weakened by the mutiny of Yevgeny Prigozhin (right), analysts said
Kasparov said Putin was deeply shocked by Prigozhin’s offensive
Garry Kasparov, the chess champion who has become one of the main leaders of the Russian democratic opposition, said Putin had been “humiliated” by Prigozhin.
“The match ended with Putin’s worst humiliation — a flight for his life from Moscow when Prigozhin’s army was hundreds of miles away,” he told CNN.
One of the many planes Putin uses for official visits took off from Moscow at 2:15 p.m. local time, according to Flight Radar, which tracks planes in real time. Many speculated that Putin had fled Moscow for St Petersburg, but Peskov, his spokesman, insisted he was still “working in the Kremlin.”
Kasparov added: “Many of Putin’s top officials ran for cover. A dictator relies on his aura of invincibility.’
Sergey Sanovich, a Hoover Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution who specializes in disinformation and autocracies, said Putin had never looked weaker.
He said the fact that he needed Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to negotiate with Prigozhin on his behalf was a sign of how weakened he was.
“Prigozhin makes a bold move and gets away with it, possibly with extra profit in the offing,” said Sanovich.
Lukashenko saves the day. Putin reduced to a spectator, complaining on TV and allowing himself to be humiliated by his top generals.
“Never in a quarter of a century has Putin looked so helpless and unhappy.”
A local resident walks past members of the Wagner group in Rostov-on-Don on Saturday
Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, is seen with Putin in Sochi on June 9. Lukashenko negotiated with Prigozhin to make a deal
Sanovich’s view of Lukashenko’s involvement was echoed by Michael McFaul, Barack Obama’s adviser on Russia from 2009-11, who then became the US ambassador to Moscow.
McFaul tweeted, “Putin couldn’t control a mercenary he created and led by his buddy. He had to rely on Lukashenko to make a deal with a man he called a traitor just hours ago.
“These are signs of real weakness, not strength.”
He added: “What has weakened Putin’s grip on power? His disastrous war in Ukraine.
The longer the war lasts, the weaker Putin’s regime becomes.
“Those who want to prevent the collapse of the Russian state (i.e. Xi) must push Putin to end his war.”
Another prominent critic, Mikhail Khodorkovsky — once Russia’s richest man who became a leading opposition figure in exile after Putin imprisoned him for 10 years — said he felt Putin’s judgment was clouded.
Mikhail Khordokovsky, imprisoned by Putin for 10 years, said Russian president was disconnected from reality
A Russian police officer guards Red Square near the Kremlin as troops brace for an assault before the sensational withdrawal of Prigozhin’s troops
Machine gun outposts are hastily built on the outskirts of Moscow ahead of Prigozhin’s shock statement
Many have speculated that COVID isolation has further detached the strongman from reality and left him misguided about reality.
Khodorkovsky said that he may have relied too much on flatterers, rather than honest advisers, and had seriously misjudged Prigozhin.
“Putin has been making mistake after mistake lately, and Prigozhin could become a critical mistake for him,” he said.
“When you’re in power for 20 years and everyone tells you what a genius you are, who knows what will happen to your consciousness.”
Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said that “Putin underestimated Prigozhin’s threat.”
“He thought he was totally dependent and loyal.”
People gathered to say goodbye to Prigozhin, with one man even reaching through his car window to shake hands with the exiled Wagner leader
A fan of the Wagner chief even managed to take a selfie with him, when the disgraced mercenary leader was forced out of Russia
Tanks were towed from the southern city of Rostov as Prigozhin’s troops retreated from Rostov
Crowds lined the streets and cheered as the private military company withdrew its troops from Rostov
Huge crowds gathered in Rostov-on-Don as Wagner’s tanks rolled out of town
Putin loyalists downplayed the threat, insisting that Prigozhin would realistically never take on the Kremlin.
Sergey Markov told CNN that Prigozhin was “extremely aggressive” but never posed a threat to Putin.
“They support Prigozhin fighting the Ukrainian army, but not Vladimir Putin,” said Markov, who claimed Putin’s popularity was now “about 80%.”
Markov said it was “really good news” that Prigozhin had ordered Wagner columns to turn back from an advance on Moscow, adding that “a lot of Moscow is happy about this.”
But Ivo Daalder, the former US ambassador to NATO, warned that the conflict was far from over.
“Remember, Gorbachev survived a coup in ’91. But he was without power 4 months later. The coup underlined his essential weakness.
Putin will probably survive for now.
But the last 24 hours raise serious questions about his grip on power. Watch this room.’