Pupils in England ‘face worst exam results in decades’ after Covid-19 lockdown
Children in England could face the worst exam results in decades and a lifetime of lower earnings, according to research which blames a failure to tackle the academic and social legacy of school closures during Covid.
The Nuffield Foundation-funded research predicts that national GCSE results in key subjects will steadily deteriorate until 2030, when fewer than 40% of pupils are expected to achieve good grades in maths and English.
Lee Elliot Major, professor of social mobility at the University of Exeter and one of the co-authors of the report, said: “Without a range of equalizing policies, the damaging legacy of Covid-19 school closures will continue to be felt by generations of students well into the next decade are felt. .”
The report recommends ‘low-cost’ policies to improve outcomes, such as recruiting students to work as tutors, and rebalancing the school year by shortening the summer holidays and spreading holidays more evenly throughout the year.
Pepe Di’Iasio, former headteacher and general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said the research was “a devastating warning” of the risk of education decline.
“The current government has failed to rise to the challenge during and after the pandemic as its investments in education recovery have fallen woefully short of what was needed. The same mistake must not be made again, and ministers must invest in schools, colleges and teachers now and in the future,” Di’Iasio said.
The work by academics from Exeter, Strathclyde and the London School of Economics is the first to map how Covid-era school closures hampered children’s social and emotional skills, as well as their skills in reading, writing and maths .
Last year, 45% of students taking GCSEs achieved Grade 5 in English and Maths, which is considered a “good pass” by the Department for Education (DfE). But the report expects this figure to continue to fall below 40% by 2030, when children who were five years old at the time of the school closure are sitting at GCSEs.
The group concluded that the learning loss will “significantly harm the educational prospects of five-year-olds at the time of Covid school closures”, and widen the existing “disadvantage gap” in exam results between disadvantaged children and their peers. It is also calculated that the lower GCSE results could lead to a lower lifetime income of £31 billion for the generation.
“These results represent a double blow to the educational progress of successive Covid generations: they are on course for the biggest overall decline in basic GCSE performance in at least two decades, and a significant widening of the socio-economic gap in GCSE prospects.” is stated in the report.
A DfE spokesperson said: “We have provided almost £5 billion for education recovery initiatives since 2020, which have supported millions of pupils who needed extra support.
“We also support disadvantaged pupils through the pupil premium, which will rise to almost £2.9 billion in 2024-25, the highest in cash terms since this funding began.
“This is in addition to our ongoing £10 million behavioral hubs program and £9.5 million for up to 7,800 schools and colleges to train a senior mental health leader.”
The DfE’s schools budget this year is just under £60 billion. The pupil premium was introduced in 2011 as an annual payment to schools for each pupil eligible for free school meals, currently £1,480 for primary school pupils and £1,050 for secondary school pupils.
Esme Lillywhite, a researcher at the University of Strathclyde, said: “Compared to most other countries, England’s response to the pandemic has focused heavily on academic catch-up, with less emphasis on social-emotional skills, extra-curricular support and wellbeing.
“Much more could be gained from closer international cooperation to learn which approaches are promising elsewhere.”