Presidential battle could play role in control of state capitols in several swing states
HARRISBURG, Pennsylvania — Two swing districts in a swing county could very well determine which party gains control of the House of Representatives in the swing state of Pennsylvania, one of many states where crucial legislative battles play out in the shadow of the presidential campaign.
Democrat Brian Munroe and Republican Joe Hogan were elected to their seats in the suburbs north of Philadelphia nearly two years ago, winning by margins of 515 and 76 votes, respectively, out of more than 30,000 cast.
Their races this year are among dozens of national ones that could determine party control of state capitals and ultimately who sets public policy on such contentious issues as abortion, gun control and transgender rights. The contests are particularly important because of recent U.S. Supreme Court decisions that weakened federal oversight and returned more power to the states.
“State legislatures determine the rights and freedoms we have and the direction our country takes. The stakes couldn’t be higher,” said Daniel Squadron, co-founder of The States Project, which recently announced a $70 million effort to help Democratic legislative candidates in select states.
All told, groups working with Democrats and Republicans plan to pour several hundred million dollars into the battle for state legislatures. Nearly 5,800 legislative seats in 44 states are up for grabs this year. The top targets are a half-dozen states where control of a chamber is at stake: Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Most of those states are also presidential battlegrounds. In some cases, national political groups are trying to tie legislative candidates to the ticket of President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. In other cases, they are trying to separate them from the top of the ticket.
Biden tried to recover from a poor debate performance by campaigning in Wisconsin and PennsylvaniaBut his political troubles have led some Democrats to suggest he step aside and raise concerns that Democrats on lower ballots could also be hurt if discouraged Democrats decide not to vote.
Democrats won a narrow 102-101 majority in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives two years ago. But Republicans have signaled they are confident they can retake the chamber this year, tackling inflation, immigration and Biden’s problems.
“If the election were held tomorrow, I would feel great about it,” said Pennsylvania State Rep. Josh Kail, who heads the campaign efforts for the Republicans in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives.
The Republican State Leadership Committee has already run ads in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin promoting inflation in favor of Biden and other Democrats and touting Republican legislative candidates.
Democrats are focused on Wisconsin after a new liberal majority on the state Supreme Court overturned previous Republican-drawn districts that had brought the GOP to power. The new districts, backed by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, improve Democrats’ chances.
The Supreme Court’s 2022 decision, which marks half a century of abortion rights showed both the influence of national politics on state elections and the importance of state legislatures. After the ruling, many Republican-led states banned or restricted abortion, while many Democratic-led states strengthened protections against abortion.
The ruling gave Democrats a new campaign theme for the 2022 general elections, which were the first to be held with districts redrawn based on 2020 census data. Democrats seized control of the legislative chambers away from Republicans in Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.
This year’s reelection campaigns of Hogan and Munroe are among 15 Pennsylvania House races being spotlighted by the national Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. Both Bucks County Districts gave just over half their votes to Biden four years ago and a larger margin to Democrats John Fetterman and Josh Shapiro in their races for U.S. Senate and governor in 2022.
“We believe we have a tremendous opportunity to not only protect our suburban majority, but to grow our majority,” said Matt Bradford, Majority Leader of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives.
Democrat Anna Payne, who is challenging Hogan, sees abortion rights, public safety and school funding as the most important issues.
“To some extent, people are looking for common sense,” Payne said. “They don’t want anyone who’s too extreme on one side or too extreme on the other.”
Hogan, a former congressional adviser, has built a moderate image in the General Assembly through his advocacy for children’s education and public transportation, among other issues.
“I’m happy to work with everyone to do what I think is right,” Hogan said.
Rosemary Donahue, a 77-year-old retired nurse and registered Republican, said she has received mail from Hogan and will evaluate his performance on issues such as fixing roads, supporting schools and women’s health rights. She regularly follows state and national politics.
“When you watch television, you can’t think about anything else because you’re constantly bombarded with the presidential election, commercials and everything,” Donahue said.
Arlene McBride, who recently became one of Munroe’s voters, said she will be watching his race with Bucks County Recorder of Deeds Dan McPhillips to see who is most likely to support preserving the social safety net. She ranks women’s health, education and welcoming immigrants among her top issues.
“Are they interested in others or are they just in business?” said McBride, 90, a registered Democrat. “It doesn’t seem like those who are just in business really care about the less fortunate.”
Research has shown that many voters know little about their state legislative candidates, so “national politics is likely to dominate state elections,” said Steven Rogers, a political scientist at Saint Louis University who focuses on state legislatures.
As Republicans try to overturn their 2022 losses, Democrats are trying to flip the divided, Republican-led legislative chambers in Arizona and New Hampshire.
Immigration and inflation are particularly hot issues in Arizona. And abortion rights advocates recently submitted petition signatures to get a constitutional amendment on the November ballot. That has raised the stakes in a state where voter registration is almost evenly split between Republicans, independents and Democrats.
“I expect a lot of national issues — national dynamics — will play a significant role in Arizona’s legislative elections because of our status as a swing state,” said James Strickland, a political scientist at Arizona State University.
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Lieb reported from Jefferson City, Missouri.