The Premier League’s hopes of finishing fifth in the Champions League are all but over after Liverpool and West Ham left Europe on Thursday.
It would take Aston Villa winning all their remaining Europa Conference League games and German clubs experiencing an absolute disaster in their European semi-finals for the Premier League to secure a fifth spot.
Europe’s top leagues will battle it out this season in an attempt to secure an extra spot in next season’s competition. Two countries must do this prior to the introduction of the new Champions League format.
The continent’s premier competition will expand from next year for the first time since 2003-04, growing from 32 clubs in an eight-group style to 36 clubs in what is known as a ‘Swiss’ format.
Teams will play eight matches in the qualifying stage, four at home and four away, with the top eight teams progressing to the last 16 and the ninth to 24th facing each other in two-legged play-offs.
The Premier League’s hopes of five Champions League places are all but over
The departure of Liverpool and West Ham from the Europa League means England have a slim chance of overtaking Germany
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Two of the extra spots will be awarded to the top-performing leagues in Europe this season, and after the Premier League’s dismal week in Europe, the division faces an uphill task in securing one.
Currently, Italy and Germany top the rankings with scores of 19,428 and 17,928 respectively, while England follows closely with 17,375.
Germany has two teams in the semi-finals of the Champions League in Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich, as well as Bayer Leverkusen in the last four of the Europa League.
Meanwhile, Italy have four teams left with Roma, Fiorentina and Atalanta still in the Europa League, which puts them in good stead in the table.
England are down to one team after this week’s results and their hopes are pinned on Aston Villa in the Conference League.
Liverpool beat Atalanta 1-0 in Bergamo, but that was not enough to recover from the terrible 3-0 defeat at Anfield last week.
Meanwhile, West Ham earned a commendable 1-1 draw against Bayer Leverkusen in London – and would have won had it not been for a late goal – but the damage had already been done with a 2-0 defeat in Germany a week earlier.
Italy is mathematically certain to finish in the top two and Germany seems virtually out of the picture.
Bayer Leverkusen’s progress over West Ham and Bayern Munich’s victory over Arsenal have seriously hampered their Premier League chances
Aston Villa need to win all their remaining Europa Conference League games to have a chance at the Premier League
Aston Villa are England’s only hope of securing some more points in the coefficient table, but their chances of winning enough (and Germany few enough) are vanishingly small.
England can still achieve a maximum possible score of 18.25 – higher than Germany’s current score – if Aston Villa win all their remaining matches and win the Europa Conference League.
However, securing fifth place in the Champions League would depend on a horrendous set of results for Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen in their respective semi-finals in the Champions League and Europa League.
A win for a club in Europe is worth two points in the rankings, and a draw one. Bonus points can be collected by progressing in each competition, with more earned for higher level tournaments.
The total points are then divided by the number of teams in Europe from the country at the start of the season. In the Premier League, the total is divided by seven instead of eight, because West Ham qualify by winning the Conference League.
While England’s success in Europe could be good news for teams chasing a Champions League spot, it will also benefit those lower down the table.
It would mean that qualifying for the Europa League and Conference League would in theory be easier, as the qualifying places would go down.
Germany and Italy could have six more teams in the Champions League if one of their teams wins a European competition and finishes outside the top four
That would ensure that the sixth and seventh qualifications for the Europa League – assuming a Champions League team wins the FA Cup – would earn them a place in the Conference League.
Italy and Germany could have six more teams in the Champions League. If Roma or Atalanta finish outside the top four and win the Europa League, Serie A will have six teams in the Champions League next season, and the same applies if Borussia Dortmund win the big trophy.