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Are the Democrats in even deeper trouble in Arizona? Pollsters say the race between incumbent Democrat Senator Mark Kelly and his Republican rival is now a toss-up
- Despite Democrats outpacing Republicans in Copper State, the race was reverted to a toss-up on Thursday by Cook Political Report
- Politico changed its own election prediction for the Arizona race on Thursday from leans Democrat to toss-up
- The race was moved back to a toss-up on Thursday as recent private polls show Blake Masters (R) and Sen. Mark Kelly (D) being neck and neck
- The new toss-up rating will certainly bring optimism to Republicans hoping to take back the Senate
- Arizona is now one of five races labeled as a toss-up, alongside Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
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In a sign that political tides are changing with less than two weeks before the midterm elections, the unbiased Cook Political Report has turned the Arizona Senate race from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up.”
Despite Democrats outpacing Republicans in Copper State, the race was reverted to a toss-up on Thursday as recent private polls show Blake Masters (R) and Sen. Mark Kelly (D) to be neck and neck.
Also on Thursday, Politico changed its own election prediction for the Arizona race from leaning Democrat to toss-up.
The Senate race joins the governor’s race in the flipping category, where Republican Kari Lake is slightly ahead of Democrat Katie Hobbs by most measures. Both Lake and Masters have the backing of former President Trump.
A poll by the left-wing Data for Progress released Wednesday showed the candidates were tied 47 percent each.
The new toss-up rating will certainly bring optimism to Republicans hoping to take back the Senate. While the Democrats have been somewhat favored to hold onto the top chamber, Arizona is now one of five races called a toss-up, alongside Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Lean Democrat races now include Colorado, where incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennett faces Republican Joe O’Day, and New Hampshire, where Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan faces Republican Don Bolduc.
In the ‘lean Republican’ Senate camp is North Carolina – the race between GOP Rep. Ted Budd and Democrat Cheri Beasley – and Ohio, where JD Vance and Rep. Tim Ryan competing for the seat.
Despite Democrats outpacing Republicans in Copper State, the race was reverted to a toss-up on Thursday as recent private polls show Blake Masters (R) and Sen. Mark Kelly (D), above, being neck and neck
Blake Masters has the backing of Donald Trump, whose PAC donated $1 million into his race this week
Jessica Taylor, editor of Cook’s Senate and Governors, noted that Kelly is still the most likely Democrat in a Senate race to win his seat. “If Arizona is falling, many states have already, most likely, including Nevada and maybe Georgia.”
Over the summer, Republicans lost enthusiasm for the Arizona Senate race, with the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm slashing spending in August and a super PAC aligned with Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell. , which snatched $9.6 million in the state in September.
McConnell and Trump then begged wealthy venture capitalist Peter Thiel, whose firm Blake previously served as COO, to step in for funding.
On Tuesday, a political action committee backed by Trump funneled $1 million into Arizona, according to AdImpact, following a $725,000 ad purchase by MAGA Inc. last week.