Top pollster says ‘struggling’ Biden, 81, needs to consider ‘dropping out’ as swing state voters reveal who they want to take his place

A top pollster advised President Joe Biden to consider resigning as the Democratic nominee for president if he continues to vote poorly in August.

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver shared his analysis on the election during a podcast interview with the Risky Business podcast with Maria Konnikova.

He said the 81-year-old Biden was trailing in the majority of swing state polls, calling it a “really, really, really bad sign for his campaign.”

“If Biden is still struggling in August, he should consider stepping aside,” Silver wrote on X, sharing a video of his analysis.

Silver admitted that it would be politically very difficult for Democrats if Biden were to drop out, but that the party had to take that into account.

“It’s not a great situation for D’s either way, but you have to examine the question carefully,” he said. ‘These are of course important elections. It shouldn’t be taboo to talk about it.’

Biden’s behavior during a news conference with Kenyan President William Ruto on Thursday raised questions about his mental stability as he repeatedly asked for stage directions and appeared surprised when reporters began shouting questions at him.

Silver’s analysis ties in with a new one Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey by asking swing state voters who they would most like to take Biden’s place if he were unable to continue as the Democratic presidential candidate.

The poll’s picks include Vice President Kamala Harris, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Maryland Governor Wes Moore and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker.

Forty-five percent of voters polled chose Harris, with Whitmer and Buttigieg tied at 36 percent, Newsom with 32 percent support, Moore earning 23 percent and Pritzker with 21 percent.

The vice president has stepped up her campaign trips in 2024 to shore up support, especially in swing states.

In 2024, Harris has visited North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin four times each, Georgia three times and Arizona and Michigan twice.

The poll shows that swing state voters are becoming increasingly familiar with Harris and have already made up their minds about her.

While 45 percent supported Harris as Biden’s replacement, 46 percent of voters in the poll opposed Harris as a replacement, including 38 percent who strongly opposed her as a choice.

Voters in swing states favored Vice President Kamala Harris to replace Biden over California Governor Gavin Newsom

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are tied at 36 percent

Only 9 percent of voters said they knew nothing or had no opinion about Harris.

About 30 percent of voters in the poll said they did not know or have an opinion about Democrats like Whitmer, Newsom and Buttigieg.

More than 50 percent of voters had no opinion about lesser-known political figures such as Pritzker and Moore.

Despite her struggles with voters, Harris expressed her willingness to fight in a recent interview with Mav Carter, the manager and business partner of baseball star LeBron James.

“Elections and campaigning, it’s very much like a fight, you know people are going to say, oh, it’s like a marathon, it’s like a marathon when people are throwing tomatoes at you every step of the way,” Harris said.

The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll surveyed 4,962 registered voters online in seven swing states from May 7 to 13.