Polling stations have opened across Paraguay as voters elect a president they hope will tackle endemic corruption, rising crime and economic inequality, with the election potentially affecting the country’s future ties with Taiwan.
A center-left coalition is seeking to end the near-continuous, seven-decade hegemony of the ruling conservative Colorado Party in the closest race in many years.
About 4.8 million of the South American country’s 7.5 million residents are eligible to vote in presidential and legislature elections to be determined in a single round on Sunday.
Lawyer Efrain Alegre, 60, of the center-left Concertacion coalition, narrowly led polls ahead of the vote amid a recent anti-incumbency trend in Latin American elections.
His main challenger is Santiago Pena, a 44-year-old economist and former Treasury Secretary who hopes to continue the rule of the Colorado Party, which has ruled almost uninterruptedly since 1947 – through a dictatorship and since the return of democracy in 1989.
While differing in economic and international policies, the two frontrunners are both socially conservative and strongly champion anti-abortion and anti-gay marriages in a predominantly Catholic nation.
As the polls opened, Alegre and Pena urged Paraguayans to vote, a call echoed by outgoing President Mario Abdo Benitez, who is constitutionally limited to a single term.
“The higher the turnout, the greater the legitimacy of democracy,” said Abdo after being one of the first to vote in the capital Asuncion.
Foreign policy upheaval?
The outcome could have important implications for Paraguay’s international relations. It is one of only 13 countries to recognize Taipei over Beijing.
But Alegre has vowed to reconsider if he wins.
“Relations with Taiwan mean the loss of one of the largest markets, China,” he told AFP news agency.
“Paraguay is making a very big effort, a very big sacrifice to have relations with Taiwan, but we don’t see the same effort from Taiwan,” he said.
Latin America has been an important diplomatic battleground.
China views self-governing, democratic Taiwan as part of its territory that will one day be reconquered, and will not allow countries with relations with China to recognize both Beijing and Taipei.
Nicaragua shifted its allegiance to Beijing in 2021, as did El Salvador in 2018, Panama in 2017 and Costa Rica in 2007.
Pena has said he will maintain ties with Taiwan but move the Paraguayan embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
Paraguay had moved its embassy earlier in 2018, but reversed its decision within months.
“Yes, I would go back to Jerusalem,” Pena told AFP before the vote.
Allegations of corruption
Alegre repeatedly pointed to corruption in the Colorado Party, which recently saw two of its top members hit with US sanctions for alleged bribery.
They include Pena’s political mentor and Colorado Party chairman, former President Horacio Cartes.
Paraguay ranks 137th out of 180 countries on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index.
“We are going to beat the Paraguayan Pablo Escobar and we are going to launch the real Paraguay – the Paraguay of hard work, of family, of patriotism. That’s our Paraguay,” Alegre told Al Jazeera at a rally.
When asked about the Paraguayan equivalent of the Colombian drug lord Escobar, Alegre replied: “Cartes, he is the Pablo Escobar of Paraguay and his hand-picked candidate, Santiago Pena is ‘El Chile,’ Escobar’s right-hand man,” Alegre said.
Al Jazeera’s Lucia Newman, reporting from the capital Asuncion, said that after two failed attempts to run for president, “Alegre is confident that he will get lucky a third time. His campaign slogan is ‘a choice between the mafia or the nation’.”
“Cartes is one of Paraguay’s wealthiest and most powerful men, having been sanctioned by the US in January for ‘rampant corruption undermining democratic institutions’ and alleged ties to drug trafficking and Hezbollah,” Newman said.
Pena told Al Jazeera that his mentor Cartes, who denies the corruption allegations, has the right to defend himself and also insisted that he be his own man.
“No one can say I’m not ready to run for president, no one can say I don’t have the public policy expertise, and no one can point the finger at myself [and say] that I have any instance of corruption during my public administration services,” said Pena.
‘Not interested’
Aside from the shadow of top-level corruption, which has angered voters, other election issues include poverty, social inequality and an escalating crime problem.
Paraguay’s gross domestic product is expected to grow by 4.8 percent in 2023, according to the central bank, and by 4.5 percent according to the International Monetary Fund — one of the highest rates in Latin America.
But poverty plagues about a quarter of the population.
“The country is full of privileged people. People earn 100 million guaranis (about $14,000) a month, while others starve to death,” Alegre said.
The indigenous groups of Paraguay and the inhabitants of informal settlements in particular feel neglected.
“I’m not interested. We’re not going to vote,” said Albino Cubas, who has shared a dilapidated wooden shack with his wife and three children in the capital’s Tacumbu slum since a flood took over their home.
“I have not seen any serious proposal for the poor,” he told AFP.
In addition to the presidency, voters decide on the members of the legislature and elect 17 governors.