Polling ‘Nostradamus’ – who’s correctly picked almost every election winner for 40 years – drops major hint about his final prediction

A historian who has been called the ‘Nostradamus’ of presidential election winners has dropped a major hint about who he thinks will occupy the White House in 2025.

Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted nine out of the last 10 elections, said in a YouTube livestream Thursday that he is close to completing his “final prediction” for the 2024 race.

“You don’t have to be patient much longer. Enjoy your Labor Day weekend … and within a couple of days after that, the forecast should be out,” the American University professor said on stream with his son Sam. “And this will be a final forecast.”

While keeping his final prediction secret, Lichtman gave away a key clue by criticizing a rival pollster, Nate Silver, who recently said Trump was his favorite.

“I saw the most absurd prediction today,” Lichtman said, referring to Silver.

Former President Donald Trump has an edge over Vice President Kamala Harris, according to Nate Silver’s model

Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted nine out of the last 10 elections, strongly disagrees with Silver’s methodology, which may reveal who he thinks has the best chance this cycle.

‘Just a few days ago he said there’s a good chance Kamala Harris is going to win the election. Now, a few days later, he’s switched.’

His first problem with Silver’s latest forecast is that it is “not a realistic probability.”

“If you flip a coin a million times, it’s 50 percent heads and 50 percent tails. But you can’t play the election a million times, you can only play the election once and in fact you haven’t played it at all because nobody voted. So he just fabricated this probability from the polls,” he said.

Lichtman added that during the 2016 election, Silver’s model indicated that Hillary Clinton had a strong chance of beating Trump.

Silver said he gave Trump a 30 percent chance of winning in the months and years following Trump’s surprise victory, much higher than other media outlets thought possible.

But Lichtman does not believe that explanation.

“The prophecies mean nothing, because if he is wrong he denies them and if he is right he proclaims them with great fanfare,” he argued.

Nate Silver, pictured, believed Hillary Clinton was overwhelmingly likely to win in 2016 based on polls. Lichtman thinks his model is superior because it doesn’t rely on polls at all

Lichtman also took issue with the specific number Silver cited as Trump’s chance of winning: 52.4 percent.

“Is it possible, Sam, to measure the probability of a Trump victory to within a tenth of a percent?” he asked rhetorically. “It makes it seem scientific. It makes it seem real. It makes it seem, ‘My God, this guy is very precise.’ In fact, it’s the exact opposite of precision.”

Before President Joe Biden withdrew, Lichtman said a lot would have to go wrong if he lost and that Democrats would be making “a huge mistake” if they decided to replace him.

He also said it is unlikely that Trump’s 34 felony convictions will meaningfully impact the election.

Lichtman’s first corrective prediction came in 1984 when he predicted that Ronald Reagan would win the presidency.

Just over a month before the election, he also predicted that Trump would win in 2016, but correctly thought that Biden would dethrone him in 2020.

Lichtman’s system for predicting presidential elections, which he calls the “13 Keys,” has been around since the 1980s.

He says the technology allows him to “predict the outcome of the popular election based solely on historical factors and not on candidate-preferred polls, tactics or campaign events.”

Silver’s model is certainly influenced by polls. The most recent polls showed Trump ahead in six key swing states.

Lichtman provided another hint about which way he thinks the wind is blowing when he condemned Trump for his campaign visit to Arlington National Cemetery on Monday.

Trump is pictured at Arlington National Cemetery on Monday, August 26, during a ceremony honoring Sgt. Nicole Gee’s sacrifice. After the visit, Trump’s team posted a video to his TikTok featuring clips from his visit to the cemetery, which is considered sacred ground for the U.S. military

Arlington National Cemetery is considered sacred ground in the U.S. military and is administered by the military. As such, it is illegal to conduct any form of campaign activity there.

In an unusually forceful rebuke of the former president, the military defended a cemetery worker who clashed with Trump advisers when they took photos and video in a restricted area.

“It is alleged that there was a physical altercation with the employee who was legitimately trying to stop them from violating federal law and blatantly using Arlington Cemetery for political purposes,” Lichtman said.

A member of Trump’s team said the aide “tried to physically block” them, adding that one of their private photographers had been given permission to enter the premises.