Polling ‘Nostradamus’ reveals who Kamala Harris should pick as VP

A historian known as the ‘Nostradamus’ of presidential elections has revealed who Vice President Kamala Harris should choose as her running mate.

Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted nine out of 10 elections in recent times, said in a YouTube livestream on Thursday that Harris’ choice was narrowed down to two vice presidential candidates: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly.

“I don’t think a VP pick affects the election, but a VP pick is incredibly important,” the American University professor said. “I think all the names that have been checked are qualified. In my opinion, there are two.”

In an interview with NewsweekLichtman added that Shapiro would be a particularly good choice for vice president, as he comes from a state with 19 electoral votes.

“If you elect someone from a particular state, that’s no guarantee that you’ll win that state. But if you want to get to a particular state, Pennsylvania is the most important state in this election,” the historian said.

Harris is expected to announce her choice as early as Monday, ahead of her first public appearance with the vice presidential nominee on Tuesday in Philadelphia.

Since Harry Truman in 1948, no Democrat has won a presidential election without winning Pennsylvania.

The state has voted Democratic in every election since 1992 except 2016, when it voted for Donald Trump, who is running again as a Republican in November.

Harris is expected to announce her choice as early as Monday, ahead of her first public appearance with the vice presidential nominee on Tuesday in Philadelphia.

The shortlist of candidates reportedly also includes Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.

Last month, Lichtman updated his complicated forecasting model to account for President Joe Biden dropping out of the race and Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Lichtman added that Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro would be a particularly good choice for vice president, as he comes from a swing state with 19 electoral votes up for grabs.

Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly is another top pick for Harris’ vice president, the historian said.

Based on his model, which includes thirteen factors (or “keys,” as he calls them), Harris is on track to victory with less than 100 days to go until Election Day.

Lichtman’s model compares factors with the party currently in the White House, namely the Democrats.

He said he will make his official prediction for the election next month, but Harris has largely tipped his chances of victory in her favor.

“I plan to make my official prediction in August, after the Democratic convention,” Lichtman wrote on X. “See below for my assessment on the 13 Keys Tracker of where the Keys stand NOW.”

Factors that gave Harris an edge include that she had no opponent in the primaries, that there has been little threat from third-party candidates so far, and that the economy is strong in both the short and long term.

The short list of candidates reportedly includes Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (pictured)

With the switch to Harris, the White House has not made a major policy change and the vice president is not confronted with a scandal or major social unrest.

Lichtman noted that with the switch from Biden to Harris as the presumptive nominee last week, Democrats have lost one advantage: their position as the sitting president.

Now that Harris and Trump are facing off, the professor believes the race is now effectively open.

However, he noted that Democrats were able to avoid further problems by having the party overwhelmingly rally behind Harris, thereby avoiding the need to embark on a chaotic open primary and allowing other presidential candidates to enter the race at this late stage.

“I haven’t made a definitive prediction yet. I’ve said I’m going to do it after the Democratic convention,” Lichtman told C-SPAN.

“But I’ve been saying for months, and I’ll keep saying, a lot has to go wrong for the Democrats to lose,” he added. “That could happen, but a lot would have to change.”