Polling ‘Nostradamus’ reveals Kamala Harris’ major weakness

A historian who has successfully predicted virtually every presidential election since 1984 believes the war in Ukraine could pose a major problem for Kamala Harris in November.

Allan Lichtman used his “Keys to the White House” theory in September to confidently predict Harris would win the election — but now he admits her path to victory may not be so easy.

His previous projection was based on thirteen factors, or “keys,” that assess the candidate’s performance in various areas such as domestic politics, the economy and foreign policy.

In Lichtman’s system, each of the thirteen keys can be presented as a true-or-false statement. He believes that if eight or more of these statements are true, the candidate will win, but if seven or fewer are true, he will lose.

After he announced that Harris would emerge victorious, critics began identifying flaws in his forecasting model.

Now the historian appears to have less confidence in Harris’ performance in his “foreign policy key” – a factor he had previously said would work in the candidate’s favor.

Lichtman attributed this to the war in Ukraine and charged that the conflict is a major weakness for Harris.

“Well, the shakiest key is the foreign policy key,” the historian admitted Wednesday during a live-streamed interview on YouTube.

“I gave that to the administration because it was Biden… who put together the coalition of the West that stopped Putin from conquering Ukraine and going after our NATO allies, seriously endangering America’s national security .’

After first explaining that American aid had kept Ukraine “alive” for more than two and a half years, the 77-year-old historian then noted: “Wars are fluid.”

He added: “And I suppose a catastrophe could break out in Ukraine.”

Lichtman, a professor at American University, clarified his comments Newsweek on Friday.

‘[Foreign policy] is relatively shaky because wars are uncertain.

‘However, I am now convinced that things will not change. Still, a flip wouldn’t change the prediction, because Harris has a two-key pad and four negative keys.’

It is unclear to what extent the divisive war in Gaza and the disastrous American withdrawal from Afghanistan influenced the historian’s judgment.

Lichtman’s thirteen keys are party mandate, no primary contest, incumbent power, third-party challenge, short-term economics, long-term economics, policy change, social unrest, scandals, foreign or military failure, foreign or military success, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma.

According to Lichtman, keys two, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine and 13 are currently true, which is just enough to secure a Harris victory.

Using the same keys, the historian concluded that Trump would win the 2016 election — a prediction that contradicted polling data and raised eyebrows in the academic community.

When Trump won, Lichtman was proven right and was hailed as the ‘Nostradamus’ of the elections.

Earlier this month, he offered his thoughts on the potential impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton on the election.

“The hurricane is a humanitarian catastrophe, and it is of course crucial that the response is as effective as possible.”

Despite the widespread destruction caused by the storms, Lichtman stuck to his prediction.

‘However, the storm has no impact on the economic key in the short and long term.

‘It will not push us into a recession in the coming weeks, nor will it have any consequences [the] a full record of real per capita growth during the Biden term, which is twice the average of the previous two terms.”

Some commentators viewed the hurricanes as a form of an October surprise, a major news event that occurs in the final weeks of a presidential campaign and has the potential to derail their chances.

However, Lichtman previously expressed disdain for the concept, saying it never influenced his predictions.

‘One of the biggest myths of American politics is the October surprise. I never changed my prediction based on a surprise in October.’