Poll shows Biden would lose to Trump if a third party candidate runs

A new poll showed that a third-party candidate would siphon enough votes from Joe Biden to elect Donald Trump as the next president of the United States, should that scenario materialize in the 2024 election.

The numbers fuel Democratic fears of a spoiler effect as polls continue to show voters prefer an option other than Biden.

The nonpartisan group No Labels is considering running a third-party candidate if Biden and Trump are their respective parties’ nominees. Biden is expected to easily win the Democratic nomination and Trump, even with his legal troubles, leads in polls on the GOP race.

Data for Progress’s investigation, published Wednesday, found that a third-party candidate from No Labels would do enough damage to Biden to secure a Trump victory.

The poll tested voter support for Larry Hogan, the former moderate Republican governor of Maryland named as a contender for the No Labels ticket.

In head-to-head polls, Biden leads Trump by 47 to 45 percent among likely voters, with a 6-point lead among independent voters.

When offered as a third option, Hogan scores 6 percent, but his participation reduces the race between Biden and Trump to a tie.

Data for Progress also polled a hypothetical “moderate independent candidate” in the general election against Biden and Trump. That candidate garners support from 13 percent of voters, but sucks more votes away from Biden — giving Trump a slim victory.

“Our polls make it clear that a No Labels candidate would almost certainly taint the election in favor of Trump and leave our country at the mercy of right-wing extremism,” said Danielle Deiseroth, executive director of Data for Progress.

Conducted from May 25 to June 5, the survey of 1,625 likely voters nationally had a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points.

Other polls in recent months have shown neither party is thrilled about having Biden or Trump as their nominee.

And No Labels argues that it’s too far from Election Day to know what role a third-party candidate would play.

“We are here 17 months away from the election. And so anyone can speculate on how this kind of ticket would or wouldn’t affect the race,” Ryan Clancy, No Labels’ chief strategist, said in a statement.

“There’s only one thing we all know, and we can all agree on it. Hardly anyone wants the elections that both major parties want to give us,” he noted.

No Labels is a group that promotes centrist, bipartisan policies and politics.

Their search for an alternative comes as polls show that only about half of Democrats think Biden should run again. And the president also faces waning support from two major voting blocs — black and Latino voters — that helped him win in 2020.

Some Democrats have expressed concern about his age – at 80, he is the oldest president in US history. He has also seen his approval rating drop to an all-time low of 37%.

And Democrats are visibly concerned about rumors that No Labels, which is trying to get on the ballot in all 50 states, will run an alternate candidate that would cause Biden to lose.

So far, the group has voted in four: Arizona, Colorado, Alaska and Oregon.

Along with Hogan, moderate Democratic Senator Joe Manchin is mentioned as an option.

Both Manchin and Hogan told it The Washington Post earlier this year that they didn’t rule out being on a No Labels ticket, if it comes to that.

“If enough Americans believe there is an option and the option threatens the far left and the far right, I think that will be the biggest contribution to democracy,” Manchin said. And as for the ticket, “I don’t include myself and I don’t exclude myself.”

“I think it’s very important to have that opportunity. Because we’ve never been where we are in America,” Hogan noted. “The vast majority of people in America are not happy with the course of the country and they don’t want to see Joe Biden or Donald Trump as president.”

No Labels reportedly has a $70 million war chest willing to invest in his presidential endeavors.

Earlier this month, top Democratic strategists, including some Biden campaign advisers, met with former Republicans who oppose Donald Trump.

Their purpose, according to the Washington Postwas to undermine a potential third-party presidential bid by the group No Labels, fearing it would lose Biden and put Trump in the White House.

But in addition to the threat of a third-party effort, Biden also faces an upsurge of support among some of the Democrats’ most trusted support groups: blacks and Hispanics.

It was South Carolina black voters who helped him become the Democratic nominee after giving him a landslide victory in the primary.

But in addition to appointing Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court — a fact he mentioned in his second-term announcement video — Biden has failed on other issues that matter to African Americans, including protecting the right to vote from GOP led restrictions and enacting police reforms.

In an AP-NORC poll conducted a week before Biden’s announcement, only 55 percent of black adults said they were likely to support him in the general election. Of Latinos, only 27 percent want Biden back in action in 2024, and only 43 percent say they will definitely or probably support him.

The campaign seems aware of its shaky ground with minority voters. Biden has hired Spanish campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez, the granddaughter of legendary labor leader Cesar Chavez, and he has hired a black deputy campaign manager: Quentin Fulks.