PETER VAN ONSELEN: Voters thought they were getting hope and purpose from Albo. But he’s too afraid to stand for what he really believes in… so where does that leave all of US?

With a federal election expected in just over six months, what can the government do to convince voters that it is worthy of re-election?

After more than two years, this first term seems to have been lost at sea. It’s hard to know what its purpose is.

The situation is not new.

Even John Howard, after his landslide election victory in 1996, lost his way during the Coalition’s first term in power.

So much so that the then Prime Minister’s personal numbers were in the toilet, just like Albo’s are now.

Voters wondered what the point of the Howard government was. It lagged behind in the polls, just as a recent Freshwater poll shows Labor is doing now.

Howard decided to change course. He wouldn’t die wondering. A lifelong advocate of tax reform, he announced plans to combat the looming election, advocating the introduction of a goods and services tax, or GST.

It was something he had ruled out when he was opposition leader, which made the politics of the switch interesting and risky.

Howard was quick to point out that its introduction would also result in the biggest income tax cuts in Australian history, sending take-home pay packets soaring.

And while he admitted he was underhanded, he would take it to an election to earn a mandate. The then government hoped that this would overcome the broken promise.

The coalition went on to win the 1998 elections, albeit only just, by fighting for something meaningful. And Howard served a total of four terms in the top job, making him the country’s second-longest serving prime minister.

Could we see something similar now? Is there any chance that Labor will go into the next election calling for massive tax reform, or something else meaningful?

Tax experts have been calling for meaningful tax reforms for years.

The recent row over negative gearing suggested we might see such a debate before the Prime Minister shuts it down. It’s hard to imagine him reviving it between now and Election Day.

To do this would be a double pike backflip.

While the prospect of a meaningful, policy-based election battle is enticing, it is difficult to imagine this Labor government – ​​let alone this Prime Minister – making tax reform a battle to save his political career.

That’s because Albo never defined himself based on economic issues. To the extent that he has paid much attention at all to the major economic debates of our time, his left-wing ideology on that front has long been rooted in a past from which the developed countries have come.

Albo even opposed the economic reforms of the Hawke and Keating era, and was on their political side. His left-wing economic beliefs fit the Greens’ policies better than mainstream tax reform ideas that economists might support. That’s why he keeps them private.

Albanese defines himself based on his views on social policy, not economics. That’s why he made the Voice to Parliament his first assignment when he became Prime Minister.

The fact that the idea failed and burned, revealing how out of touch he is with the Australian mainstream, pushed the Prime Minister into a policy shell from which he cannot get out.

In short, he’s too afraid to be himself and propose big ideas that would align with the whole reason he got involved in politics in the first place. Because those views are a relic of a bygone era.

So where does that leave us?

Well, it leaves this government somewhat rudderless when it comes to policy content. And with such a leaderless vision, the Labor government is only pursuing, one by one, smaller policy ideas that individual ministers hold dear.

Changes in industrial relations, tinkering with super and the third tax cuts are all examples. This also applied to the changes to immigration rules before that time, which had the opposite effect and led to the minister’s removal from the portfolio.

But these policy ideas are not major changes anyway. They do not represent bold reforms that could give this Labor government a target to fight the next election.

Instead, we are about to witness a campaign that is going nowhere, at least as far as the government is concerned. A Seinfeld pageant.

A first-term Labor government advocating its own re-election purely on the basis that it has only been there for three years (so come on, try again!) and because it claims that the other gang is not yet ready to return to power.

Therefore, the messaging is unlikely to be particularly successful. Labor could come back to power, I have no doubt about that. But in a weakened state, perhaps reduced to a minority government dependent on the Greens to stay in power.

Even the Prime Minister is telling those around him that he expects to lose his majority in the next election.

At that point, big policy ideas will emerge, but they won’t be mainstream ideas. It will be the Greens’ radical demands if Labor is to secure their support for a second term.

If that happens, this leaderless, rudderless Labor regime will likely agree to almost anything just to stay on the right side of the Treasury banks.

Because holding on to office is about the only idea Albo has left that means anything to him.

The goal to retain power for power’s sake after a thirty-year political career that will be over if he doesn’t.

It’s grim, it’s certainly not inspiring, but it’s all he has left at this point.

And it is still far from the hope and purpose that many of Albo’s supporters thought his premiership would bring.