PETER VAN ONSELEN: The VERY surprising name – once touted as a future Prime Minister – rumoured to be among exodus from Team Albo
The idea of Anthony Albanese changing his position in the front row is like moving the seats on the Titanic.
Although it is not certain that HMAS Labor will sink, many of its ministers are considering pulling the plug and giving up their political careers.
Named candidates include ministers Linda Burney and Brendan O’Connor, but there is speculation that Education Minister Jason Clare wants to make it a triumvirate of cabinet ministers who will take the reins.
Such pre-election announcements would bring major changes to Albo’s ministry, giving him the chance to also remove people like Clare O’Neil and Andrew Giles from the Home Affairs and Immigration portfolios, where they had been responsible for blunders and failures.
Meanwhile, those who want to fight on and participate in the next elections are already busy campaigning. This is in stark contrast to those who do not want to. This is an important indicator of who stays and who leaves.
Western Sydney MPs Tony Burke and Ed Husic have taken to posting examples of their local community work on social media, something neither minister has done in recent months.
Clare has been noticeably absent from the community, adding to speculation that at 52 he may be a surprise.
Clare, the Labor Party’s official campaign spokesman at the last election, holds the seat of Blaxland, once held by former Prime Minister Paul Keating.
Jason Clare’s presence in the community is noticeably absent, adding to speculation that he could be a surprise departure at the age of 52 (pictured with Anthony Albanese in 2023 at an early childhood education centre in Queanbeyan)
Clare was long seen as a future leader of the Labour Party, but his political career has not lived up to the high expectations many had of him.
Sources close to Clare say that if he leaves politics now, it is because he still considers himself young enough to start a second career outside politics, perhaps in the private sector.
Anthony Albanese, who has recovered from a holiday in northern Australia, returns to consider a possible rescheduling of the election and when an early election should be held.
The reshuffle can only take place once he has a clear idea of who wants to stay and who wants to leave.
While demotions can also lead to political retirements, the prime minister does not want someone who is planning to leave to be put in a key portfolio and claim to be the right person for the job, only to hear shortly afterwards that person announce his or her retirement.
Jason Clare was the official spokesman for Labour at the last election, but there are signs he is looking to make an early exit. Similar rumours are circulating around Linda Burney
Skills and Training Minister Brendan O’Connor could be part of a Labor Party reshuffle
Minister for Indigenous Australians Linda Burney played a key role in the failed Voice referendum and is expected to resign
With one eye firmly on the Reserve Bank’s decision on interest rates, due to be announced on the first Tuesday of next month, Albo is also considering the timing of the next election. He won’t pull the trigger if he thinks the RBA will raise rates shortly before or during a campaign.
Daily Mail Australia has confirmed that Labor’s head office is conducting both targeted polling and focus group research to determine which issues voters are likely to vote on and the position of key marginal seats.
Seats won by the previous Coalition government in Western Australia are most at risk of returning to the conservative fold. What happens in the west could determine whether Labor can retain its majority or not.
The HQ is also looking at seats that Greens candidates are in danger of winning from the Labor Party. Victoria MPs Peter Khalil and Josh Burns are considered to be in serious trouble. Seats in the inner-city areas of Sydney and Brisbane are also potentially under threat.
Burns narrowly fended off a Green challenge in his seat of McNamara at the last election and Khalil has faced threatening protests and disruptions at his Wills constituency office by pro-Palestinian activists. Khalil in particular has been busy campaigning in his local community.
The prime minister has been loud and clear in his attempts to link those protests to Green activism. Despite the animosity between Labor and the Greens, recent opinion polls suggest that the prospect of Labor depending on Green support to form a government after the next election is growing.