With Joe Biden withdrawing from the US presidential race but remaining as president until the end of his term (assuming he survives until January next year), Australia must prepare for what lies ahead.
First, there is a likely showdown between Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump. Biden immediately endorsed her as his successor.
Harris is therefore almost certain to claim the Democratic nomination. Now that she has the outgoing president’s endorsement, there is a good chance that she will secure Biden’s first-round nomination votes under party rules, which should be enough to win the Democratic nomination.
Any other outcome would only prolong the divisive problems facing Democrats.
After weeks of uncertainty, it would be a bold move for Democrats to ignore Biden’s endorsement of Harris and use the few weeks left before the Democratic National Convention to find another candidate.
That would mean that the party’s heavyweights would have to unite around an alternative candidate, at a time when no clear alternative has emerged.
Bill and Hillary Clinton have already endorsed Harris for the general election, and other leading Democrats will undoubtedly soon follow suit.
Trump has already routed Biden, and the Trump campaign has focused its attack ads on Harris in recent days in anticipation of what happens next.
What does a Harris-Trump showdown mean for Australia?
If Trump is elected and Anthony Albanese (pictured) wins a second term, there is a risk that Australia-US relations will freeze.
Joe Biden has withdrawn from the presidential race, leaving the door open for Kamala Harris (pictured together)
While Biden would almost certainly lose to Trump, Harris has a chance to regain support among independents and get people out to the polls in America’s non-mandatory electoral system.
But as has been documented many times, her term as vice president was not exactly popular, and the Trump team expects to defeat her in the general election.
The temptation for many Australian politicians will be to jump in and suggest that they must defeat Trump and his risky agenda for change. That is certainly the view of most Labor MPs in private.
But it would be a mistake to express such sentiments publicly, especially given the former president’s growing popularity, especially after his assassination attempt.
If that were to happen and he won a second term, you can bet that Trump would take a cool approach to the Albanian government.
A leading indicator that Labor politicians and Australian officials should stay out of the polarising US debate was seen last week when Kevin Rudd used his time in Washington to cosy up to Republicans, including Trump’s running mate JD Vance.
This morning, following Biden’s announcement, Labor lawmakers have already received talking points for potential media interviews, to ensure everyone is aware of what they have to say about the shift in American politics.
Expect Anthony Albanese and his team to hold no opinion on the race that will take place between now and the US elections in November.
The tumult of what’s happening in American politics might even be enough to convince a nervous prime minister to postpone his plans for an early election. Risking a second term when global politics are so uncertain. Especially when you factor in today’s Freshwater Poll, which puts Peter Dutton’s Coalition ahead of Labor on the two-party vote for the first time since the 2022 election, 51-49 percent.
But any strategy to delay the Australian election until the new year must be weighed against the potential risks to the economy that a Trump return could pose. Last week, economics professor Richard Holden laid out why he thinks a Trump return could be an economic catastrophe for Australia.
Albo doesn’t want that prediction to come true anytime soon, risking his economic management credentials. The Coalition has long been closer to Republicans in Washington than Labor politicians.
However, if Harris can find a way to regain support and become the next US president, it will be more in keeping with Australia’s left-wing government. Whether we’re talking about the politics of climate change or the kind of social agenda Harris will have.
After weeks of uncertainty, it would be a bold move for Democrats to ignore Biden’s endorsement of Harris (pictured) and use the few weeks left before the Democratic convention to find another candidate.
The 45th POTUS and First Lady Melania disembark from Air Force One in Palm Beach, Florida
But the fact remains that recent troubles within the Democratic Party mean Trump is still well-positioned to return to the White House. So that prospect will be at the forefront of policymakers on Team Labor’s minds as they consider how to navigate a second-term Trump presidency.
Preparing for the impact a Trump return will have on relations with China, the AUKUS deal, and trade and tariffs with the US are just some of the key issues affecting the winner in November.
If the Australian general election does not take place until after the US election, political strategists here will be keeping a close eye on how Trump’s populist message is received in American society, particularly on issues such as immigration.
Peter Dutton has already shown that he is prepared to make immigration policy a contested area, just as it is in the US. And Dutton’s strategy is to focus on the outer-city seats currently held by Labor, not just the marginal seats.
There could be similarities with the way US candidates try to appeal to swing states in Central America.
The Australia-US alliance is supported by both parties, but within that framework it becomes even more contentious if the completion of the Australian state system does not align with the outcome of the US election.
Donald Trump can only widen that gap. That is why the Albanian government will focus on avoiding participation in the debate as much as possible between now and the presidential elections in November.