Here’s a disturbing scenario as we wait to find out who will be the next President of the United States.
All polls point to a fierce battle. Much of the rhetoric suggests that whatever the outcome, it will be a contentious one, with recounts in key battleground states.
A Supreme Court challenge similar to what happened in 2000 when George W. Bush defeated Al Gore is also not out of the question.
And there is even a chance of a tie in the Electoral College votes.
Considering how volatile American politics is right now, what both presidential candidates are saying about each other, and in the context of claims that the 2020 election was stolen, leading to riots at the Capitol, a lengthy process to determine the next president will lead to enormous tensions.
And here a potential nightmare scenario could unfold.
It would be the president of the Senate, as the constitutionally appointed official who certifies the outcome of the presidential election during a joint session of Congress, who would ultimately declare the winner.
Guess who that is? Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris, that’s who!
Imagine a scenario where, after all the possible recounts, court challenges and claims of a rigged election, Kamala Harris pulls off her own victory
Trump supporters would go wild. Trump would go crazy, writes Peter van Onselen
Imagine a scenario where, after all the possible recounts, court challenges and claims of a rigged election, Harris signs off on her own victory.
Trump supporters would go wild. Trump would go wild.
Alternatively, she will face the humiliation of signing off on Trump’s victory – after all the nasty things he has said about her and her campaign.
But it is the first scenario that is likely to cause instability.
The date of the joint meeting is January 6 next year. In such circumstances, tensions will escalate and the previous riots in DC may seem tame in comparison. At the time, it was Trump’s Vice President Mike Pence who signed Joe Biden’s victory, and even that simple, constitutionally mandated duty was seen as controversial by some Trump supporters.
No scriptwriter for the most tense political thrillers could come up with a juicier scenario than one that is very likely once all the votes are counted.
But before we get there, today we’ll see how the votes roll in. Assuming all other state-by-state results go as expected, there are seven major battleground states:
1.Michigan
2.Pennsylvania
3.Wisconsin
4. North Carolina
5. Arizona
6. Georgia
7.Nevada
The first three are the so-called ‘blue wall’. The traditional rust belt of the American working class supported Biden last time. If all three states support Harris this time, she will almost certainly win.
On the other hand, as long as Trump wins back North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia – all of which he won against Hillary Clinton in 2016 – he can win by winning back just one state within the blue wall to emerge victorious.
Nevada is a very small state, but it will be interesting depending on where other states end up, because whoever wins could turn the outcome into a tie in the Electoral College, sending the outcome to Congress to determine the winner.
So sit back and watch the results roll in, but don’t make the mistake of assuming early leads matter. In the US elections we see big shifts as chunks of votes come in for certain areas that vote very differently, causing the numbers to shift dramatically and suddenly.
My kiss of death? A Trump win… but that’s more of a guess than a prediction, and I’d love to be wrong.
This election is just too close to call.