It was the only state or territory to achieve a ‘yes’ majority in last year’s Voice referendum, and on Saturday the Australian Capital Territory returned Labor to power for the seventh consecutive election.
Another minority Labor government dependent on support from the Greens – images that the federal Labor Federation will not try to highlight.
Yes, the ACT is completely out of touch with the rest of the nation. Her progressive beliefs are anathema to the more conservative values of mainstream voters spread across the country in marginal seats.
The place where Australia’s federal political class spends most of its time is a bubble far removed from the challenges facing most of the country.
Being out of touch is one of the worst insults you can throw at a mainstream politician, but in Canberra it’s a way of life.
It is one of the reasons why John Howard decided not to settle there at The Lodge. He preferred to stay in his home state of New South Wales, where he dominated federal electoral politics for more than a decade.
Albo is happily ensconced in The Lodge as polls suggest Labor support in NSW is waning.
The prime minister’s colleagues increasingly wonder whether he is too far removed from the concerns of voters whose support he needs to maintain majority government.
The ACT is an island unto itself. A political jurisdiction dominated by voting bureaucrats clearly leaning to the left.
And don’t forget that the Parliamentary Press Gallery is also located there. No wonder it rarely understands the complaints of the mainstream.
After 23 years in power, with another four years guaranteed, Labor is dominant in the nation’s capital. Despite the continued presence of a powerful cross-bank.
Anthony Albanese has settled into the Canberra bubble by moving into the Lodge. Above, with Chief Minister Andrew Barr and Jodie Haydon earlier this year
Not only is Labor winning at the territory level, but federally it holds all three of the ACT seats on offer, with the two Senate seats shared with independent Senator David Pocock.
Liberals can’t even win a Senate seat in the ACT these days.
The left-wing reality of the ACT is why the area has supported all kinds of progressive social policy processes over the years.
Heroin injection rooms, euthanasia and last year even the decriminalization of meth – a policy change opposed by Liberals.
Anyone looking to read tea leaves in the run-up to the federal election won’t have to spend much time trying to understand what happened in the ACT on Saturday evening.
It is an area that is out of touch with the rest.
A more interesting electoral precursor to the federal election will be next weekend’s showdown in Queensland. A state with a growing population that can sometimes single-handedly decide federal elections.
The Labor government in Queensland will struggle to stay in power, but a change of government at state level in the Sunshine State should not bother Albo too much.
If anything, he hopes that a state nullification for Labor in the north will help voters get the ‘sh** out of their livers about us’, as a federal Labor MP colorfully described it to me yesterday.
The only problem with that hope is that polls show Albo is less popular in Queensland than (soon-to-depart?) Labor Prime Minister Steven Miles.
The Canberra Center shopping centre, above (stock image)
And the prime minister is also less popular in Queensland than federal opposition leader and local boy Peter Dutton.
That said, the Liberals and Nationals already hold the lion’s share of federal seats in Queensland. So Labor is not at great risk of going backwards.
Another election contest worth watching before the federal election is the WA state election, which will be held on March 8 next year.
There remains a small chance that Albo will go to the polls before then. If not, asking how well Labor in the West is doing in the post-Mark McGowan era will give us an idea of how the federal Labor Party might fare as well.
McGowan was central to launching the 2022 Labor elections at federal level in the west. His skyrocketing approval ratings thanks to the pandemic were a major factor in the landslide Albo enjoyed in helping him secure majority government in 2022.
Retaining the seats won in the West last time is key to maintaining a federal majority government for Labor. Liberal insiders are concerned there is no strong desire for change in WA, which could limit their electoral returns on election day.
It has also emerged that Labor plans to personally attack Peter Dutton during the next federal election campaign, believing this could deter enough voters from sticking with the then government.
It’s a risky strategy when the incumbent Prime Minister is generally on his nose, and it only serves to emphasize that Labor doesn’t have much to show for it at the federal level as a positive reason to support his re-election.
That said, campaign professionals know that negative messaging works. And first-term governments rarely lose.
The last time this happened at the federal level was in 1931.