PETER VAN ONSELEN: Anthony Albanese’s problem is summed by with three simple words

Nearly three-quarters of Australians are unwilling to vote for the Labor Party, according to a poll released today.

Just a tick above one in four voters (27 percent) said they would cast their first preference vote for the government in the latest Resolve poll.

That is an extraordinary result for a government that is just months away from a federal election.

And one of the reasons for that is clear, according to an increasingly despondent elected Labor MP.

“He looks like he doesn’t care anymore,” the MP told Daily Mail Australia. It is an energy-efficient Albo.

The purchase of a $4.3 million retirement home on the NSW central coast did not help. But it does not fully explain the feeling among Labor that Albo’s performance has been lackluster of late.

Another poll published today, Newspoll, shows Albo is seen as a weak leader, while opposition leader Peter Dutton is seen as decisive by 60 percent of voters. However, the Newspoll considered Dutton to be more arrogant than Albo.

“Of course, what would Albo have to be arrogant about anyway?” the disgruntled Labor MP asked sarcastically.

In fact, today’s Resolve poll result is so grim that even if the preferences of every Greens voter were to swing towards Labour, it would only take the ALP vote to 39 per cent.

That would require the government to find a further 11 percent support among voters for crossbench parties and independents, just to meet the 50 percent threshold of the two-party post-preference vote.

In the 2022 federal election, Labor won a narrow majority of seats in parliament, with a two-party preferred vote of 52.13 percent.

The same poll also found that a comfortable majority of voters (59 percent) feel worse off than before Labor came to power.

It’s a sentiment supported by economic data, including the ongoing per capita recession, which is exacerbating the cost-of-living crisis.

The poor results come as the prime minister faces mounting criticism for failing to adequately respond to a rise in violent anti-Semitism across the country, including Friday’s arson of a synagogue in Melbourne.

The Prime Minister and his senior ministers appear reluctant to intervene too strongly in condemning the attacks, fearing a backlash in Labor seats with significant Muslim populations. It is a deeply cynical witchcraft.

Albo and his team may also be reluctant to take a stronger position, fearing the political impact it would have among Green voters in inner-city seats. It could also spell trouble for the Greens parliamentary party itself, whose support Labor is likely to need after the next election if it is able to put together a minority government.

“He looks like he doesn’t care anymore,” the MP told Daily Mail Australia. It’s energy efficient Albo (above, in Parliament, on November 27)

But could Albo even get the party over the line?

It’s often forgotten, but Albo’s 2022 campaign efforts weren’t great, despite Labor winning.

On the first day of the campaign he came up against economic figures before recovering to get the Labor campaign back on track.

The then opposition’s best week started at the end of week two, when Albo was forced into isolation with Covid.

That meant that senior shadow ministers, such as Jason Clare, took the lead instead of Albo. They proved that they were better at hustings than their leader.

Unless Albo can find his mojo quickly, there is a growing risk that the government will not be able to regain its position sufficiently to force a majority victory.

No first-term opposition has lost a re-election bid since 1931, suggesting Albo is still in the box to win the next election, despite all the problems he has.

Although there are nearly 100 years of precedent showing first-term governments being successfully re-elected, the last three first-term governments to do so have only narrowly won their re-election efforts.

Can Albo get his mojo back? He’ll need it, if today’s polls are any indication

John Howard’s Coalition was re-elected in 1998 with less than 50 percent of the two parties’ votes, and was only successful because it won enough key marginal seats to claim victory.

Julia Gillard won Labor a second term in 2010, but only as a minority government, following the fallout from appointing Kevin Rudd as prime minister during Labour’s first term.

And Malcolm Turnbull’s victory in the 2016 election reduced the coalition majority to one seat, following the uproar surrounding Tony Abbott’s ouster as prime minister in his first term.

As difficult as each of the aforementioned re-elections was for these first-term governments, they all started with larger majorities to defend than Albo now has, adding to the difficulty for the current government as the next election approaches.

My prediction is that Labor will find a way to win, where enough voters will give the party a second chance rather than dismissing it out of hand after just one term.

That said, given all the problems and missteps during Albo’s first three years as prime minister, retaining the majority government could be a bridge too far.

He was a real disappointment as Prime Minister.