Peter Dutton has made a subtle calculation and it became very obvious for the first time this week, writes PETER VAN ONSELEN

Will the times be good for Peter Dutton in his bid to dethrone a first-term prime minister for the first time in almost 100 years?

The opposition leader has the coalition neck-and-neck in the polls and federal elections are expected in the next six to seven months.

Despite Prime Minister Anthony Albanese enjoying an early honeymoon when he came to power, things have gone downhill for Labor since then.

The debacle of the Voice referendum campaign sidelined the Prime Minister and his government in front of more than 60 percent of the Australian population.

Then Labor began breaking election promises on tax cuts and pensions, while at the same time the Reserve Bank pushed interest rates higher and higher, thanks to stubbornly high domestic inflation.

The cost of living crisis has weighed heavily on Labour’s tenure, and Dutton has used the crisis to question the credibility of the government’s economic management.

With the crisis in the Middle East taking center stage, Dutton is once again at the forefront, calling out Labour’s soft response to everything from Hezbollah flag-waving protesters to anti-Semitism on university campuses.

Dutton is well aware that the Coalition has a significant advantage over Labor when asked about the major parties’ national security credentials.

But the election campaign that Dutton is waging against Albo also confronts the idea of ​​woke politics.

The opposition leader seems keen to present himself as an advocate for the mainstream rejection of modern political correctness as out of control and anathema to the zeitgeist of the moment.

Will he be right?

We saw it this week in Dutton’s response to a question from an ABC journalist who wanted to make comparisons between the state of Israel and the terrorist organizations Hamas and Hezbollah.

Dutton parked the politeness to undermine the stupidity of the false equivalence that underlined the questions asked.

He took no prisoners.

Early in the Labor government’s term, Dutton saw his role as twofold: political survival and keeping his fractured coalition together in the wake of Scott Morrison’s heavy election defeat.

That was a loss that not only won Labor power but also wiped out a new generation of hopeful Liberal leaders, while the Talals captured more than a handful of once-safe coalition seats.

At the time, Dutton was cautious and even tried to portray himself less as the Liberal Party hard man than had always been his reputation.

The brief was to expand his appeal beyond the portfolios he had long held.

Dutton’s reputation was as a leader of the far right of the Liberal Party. His social conservatism in policy matters was matched by his tough stance on national security and defense.

Even among his supporters, there was concern about whether he would be able to mount an electoral appeal.

But perhaps times are shifting, befitting a politician of Dutton’s style. Straightforward anti-establishment rhetoric. A call to the club that Labor in government can sometimes become.

Before the business community turned against Labor over new industrial relations policies not yet announced at the election, Dutton was willing to distance himself from the Labor-business love affair on post-material issues.

The Voice to Parliament was one such example, but there were other issues too.

With the cost of living having a major impact on people’s lives, it seems Dutton had his eye on the ball from the start, when Albanese was playing in the sandbox.

At least that is what focus group research reveals for both major parties.

That is why the timing of the election is a difficult issue for Labour. Do they move early to get the election behind them before perceptions deteriorate, or delay it to use events and timing to improve Labour’s political fortunes?

Albo seems to be choosing the latter, hoping for an interest rate cut before the campaign starts (or perhaps even during the campaign).

The Prime Minister also hopes an election defeat for Queensland Labor can help voters ease their frustrations with the political left before he has to face their wrath.

However, polls show that the PM has a much lower negative net satisfaction score among Queenslanders than their Labor state premier does.

As for Dutton, his personal approval ratings are no longer a barrier to the party vote.

His leadership style may well give voters a reason to return to the Coalition after just one term out of power.

With Morrison firmly in the rear-view mirror, Dutton is a much more authentic type of leader than the former prime minister, even if Dutton is not everyone’s cup of tea.

Leaders like Dutton tend to either lean toward or lean away from who they are.

Dutton is now leaning forward, and so far the polls suggest he is being rewarded for that. It’s happening at a time when Australians are wondering what Labor stands for and whether it can be trusted.

Albo’s beta male personality is in stark contrast to Dutton’s alpha male personality.

No first-term administration has lost a re-election bid since 1931, during the Great Depression.

The current economic climate is not nearly that bad, but people are still struggling.

Dutton’s path to victory is narrow, especially given the sideshow of contests against Teals in once-safe Liberal seats.

Ultimately, an outright victory for the Coalition and Dutton after just one Labor term could be a bridge too far.

But if the opposition leader can campaign successfully enough to chip away at the Labor majority, reducing Team Albo to a minority government dependent on support from the Greens to stay in power, and on any measure for an opposition leader to the first term, that would be a successful performance.

And you never know: maybe times will be even better for Dutton.