No-one saw this political scenario coming in Australia. But it’s now looking increasingly likely, writes PETER VAN ONSELEN

A minority coalition government is looking increasingly likely as new polling shows Labor support continues to fall.

What is also striking is that when voters are asked to compare the positions of the major parties on the most important issues, the opposition comes out on top.

According to the latest Freshwater poll, Anthony Albanese’s Labor Party vote has fallen to just 30 percent, while the Coalition takes 42 percent of the vote.

On a two-party preference basis, Labor trails the Coalition by 48 percent to 52 percent.

If that were to happen on election day, the Coalition would likely win more seats than Labor, but just miss out on a majority of its own.

From the Prime Minister down, the assumption in the centres of power has long been that Peter Dutton is unlikely to be able to form a minority government, given the existence of the Teals and the growing support for the Greens.

Despite the declining political prosperity, the Labour Party is seen as the party that can retain power, although this requires the support of all parties.

Albo has told close associates he does not believe he can win with a Labor majority, admitting the government will likely need the support of independents to govern for a second term.

That means the Greens’ role in a second term of Labour government is all but guaranteed.

But the previous certainty that only Labour would seriously consider forming a minority government after the next election is now being tested by the deteriorating political climate for the government.

This is evident from today’s opinion poll.

If Dutton’s opposition manages to win only 71 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives at the next election, he could potentially form a minority government himself.

He would need the support of right-wing and centrist MPs such as Bob Katter, Rebekha Sharkie, Allegra Spender and Helen Haines.

Andrew Wilkie, who as an independent MP for Tasmania supported a minority Labor government in 2010 when parliament last sat, would have to be appointed Speaker by the numbers mentioned above to hand Dutton the keys to The Lodge.

That’s assuming the Greens and other crossbenchers refused to consider a Dutton premiership.

To support a coalition government, politicians like Spender and Haines would also need to secure significant policy concessions.

That could mean scrapping Dutton’s nuclear policy and agreeing to greater transparency around government regulations.

Sources close to the opposition leader say neither compromise is likely to happen, meaning a Dutton minority government may have to get closer to 73 or 74 seats to be a viable option without the support of Spender or Haines.

Labor, which currently holds 78 seats compared to the Coalition’s 58, could see its share of seats fall back to 60 if the election results match the Freshwater figures, with both the Liberal Party and the Greens losing seats.

If the coalition manages to win more seats than Labor, it should be given the first chance to form a minority government.

However, it is possible that Governor-General Sam Mostyn, as sitting prime minister, will heed Albanese’s advice to continue governing with a minority share lower than that of the coalition while he waits for the numbers to be tested in parliament.

Should that happen, we will have to wait and see how MPs voted when the first motion of no confidence was tabled, and what votes followed.

Labor Party loses on issues

While the declining primary and two-party vote for the Labor Party will give party strategists food for thought as they determine the timing of the next election, it is not the only figure that should give party strategists pause for thought.

Voters believe the Labour Party manages two issues better: the environment (30 versus 23 percent) and ‘welfare and benefits’ (39 versus 29 percent).

And given concerns that excessive government spending is contributing to high inflation and the persistent refusal to cut interest rates, it is questionable whether Labour’s better allocation of welfare and government spending is really an advantage.

In contrast, the Labour Party trails the Coalition significantly on issues such as national security (23 vs. 42 percent), cost of living (24 vs. 38 percent), management of the economy (25 vs. 41 percent) and ‘taxes and government spending’ (24 vs. 39 percent).

The Labour Party even trails the Coalition in terms of which party is best equipped to manage housing, by 26 per cent to 32 per cent. That may have something to do with the Prime Minister’s poor decision to reassign his failed Home Secretary, Clare O’Neil, to the housing portfolio.

After all the problems in her previous portfolio, it is no surprise that Labor also backs the Coalition as the preferred manager of immigration and asylum matters, by 25 percent to 40 percent.

On the issue of housing, 42 percent of respondents said that neither major party is capable of tackling the housing crisis.

This comes amid continued attacks from the Greens, who are demanding major policy changes on taxes and housing cuts.

This could be an important negotiating point for the Greens and Labour if Albania forms a minority government after the elections.

With the next election due to take place in May next year, the government’s dismal figures will leave many Labour Party members wondering whether postponing the election could improve the situation.

Perhaps going to the polls earlier – before the situation deteriorates – is the government’s best chance of returning to power.

Not since the Labour Party lost the 1931 election, in the midst of the Great Depression, has any newly elected government lost re-election.