Americans are expected to consume 70 trillion fewer calories over the next six years thanks to the rise of weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy.
By the end of 2030, the average American adult is expected to eat 100 to 800 fewer calories per year thanks to the drugs’ hunger-reducing effects.
The reportcompiled by Impact Analytics, found that this will result in a cumulative annual reduction of approximately 10 trillion to 68 trillion calories by 2030.
The study found that since the drugs were approved for weight loss in 2021, U.S. sales of fresh produce have risen sharply, while junk food purchases have fallen.
Shares of Jell-O maker Kraft Heinz, Pringles maker Kellanova and soft drink giant PepsiCo, owner of Frito-Lay, all hit lows last year, in a sign of the so-called “Ozempic effect.”
An estimated six percent of American adults — about 18 million — are currently taking a drug that mimics the hormone that tells the brain you’re full. These medications include Ozempic, Wegovy, Zepbound and Mounjaro
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An estimated 12 percent of American adults have tried one of these medications since they began, and about six percent are currently taking them, about 18 million.
With the hormones signaling fullness activated, people taking the medications consume much less food than they would without them, leading to smaller portion sizes and fewer snacks.
The health and wellness industries, valued in the trillions, have flourished during this time as many Americans eagerly embrace healthier lifestyle choices.
By 2024, average calorie intake is expected to reach approximately 3,600 calories per person per day, a notable increase from the 2,800 calories recorded in 1960. Forecasts suggest this could drop to 2,800 calories by 2030.
By 2030, there could be a significant reduction in calorie intake among the entire adult population, thanks to the explosive popularity of weight-loss drugs
But experts predict that fast-food and junk-food companies will see their sales and profits decline, and food manufacturers are increasingly concerned about the increasing impact of weight-loss drugs on their bottom lines.
According to the report, sales in healthy food categories such as fresh and frozen vegetables will increase approximately five to nine percent annually between 2022 and 2024.
The Impact analysis The report highlights the declining consumption of sugary drinks, increased conscious eating, the increasing use of fitness and nutrition apps and the strong influence of social media in promoting healthy eating trends.
There has also been a wave of enthusiasm for wellness, with consumers better informed than ever about the various health risks of eating too much ultra-processed food, as well as a growing number of private labels offering low-calorie and plant-based offerings.
Demand for fresh produce has increased, with a 12.4 percent increase in fresh fruit sales and a 9.2 percent increase in vegetables.
A survey conducted by Morgan Stanley found that 73 percent of people ate fewer confectionery products, including sugary sweets, chocolate and some pastries
Due to the enormous shift in food consumption, the authors predict that supermarkets will have to adapt by increasing the regular supply of healthy food and allowing more shelf space for healthy food.
Prashant Agrawal, CEO of Impact Analytics, shared this USA TODAY: ‘We are moving from sugary foods, processed foods to healthier foods.
‘GLP is the cause of this. There’s also the fact that people are more concerned about ultra-processed foods.”
The report’s authors said: ‘As more people adopt healthier eating habits and use GLP-1 medications, demand for high-calorie, processed foods is expected to decline significantly by 2030.
‘Sweet snacks, carbonated soft drinks, fast food, frozen meals, consumer behaviour: and other high-calorie products with little nutritional value are likely to see declining sales.’
The investment bank Morgan Stanley predicted the number of people who would drink soft drinks and alcohol and eat salty snacks will decline by four percent in 2035forcing manufacturers to either reformulate or risk being squeezed out of the market.
Major players in the fast food industry, such as McDonald’s, Burger King and Yum Brands, owner of KFC and Taco Bell, could see declining demand
Last year, the CEO of global snack company Kellanova, owner of brands like Cheez-It, Pringles and Rice Krispies Treats, said Bloomberg: ‘Like anything that has a potential impact on our business, we will look at it, study it and, if necessary, mitigate it.’
A day later, investment firm Barclays predicted the impact the drugs’ arrival would have on companies such as Pepsi Co., which makes soft drinks, Cheetos and Doritos, McDonald’s Corp., and Altria Group Inc., the cigarette maker.
The company suggested these businesses buy insurance to protect themselves against potential financial losses, with strategists saying: ‘The impact of GLP-1s could potentially cause disruption across a number of industries.’