2024 could be the Academy Awards’ biggest year in a long time. The Oscar nominations, to be announced on Tuesday, January 23, are set to honor highly regarded films from around the world, performances that premiered in theaters and on streaming, and some of the biggest films of the year – including the Barbenheimer double. characterized by Oppenheimer And Barbie. It’s slowly returned from the hazy pandemic era when films that came out more or less on time won Best Picture, but here we are, with a slate of nominations that’s both predictable and exciting.
How predictable? Let’s take a stab at guessing the nominees on the eve of the actual Oscar nominations.
Best image predictions
American fiction
Anatomy of a fall
Barbie
The survivors
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Master
Past lives
Poor things
The zone of interest
What movie could sneak in? The Academy’s expansion into a more global voting base has given international favorites a better chance to break into the top 10 Best Picture nominees – which is why Cannes Film Festival favorites like Anatomy of a fall And The zone of interest have a great chance of acting out more traditional Hollywood prestige plays such as The color purple or Sky. Of these choices, I’m the most dubious Master have momentum, and wonder if Spider-Man: About the Spider-Verse or my loved one Asteroid city could slip in as a surprise attack.
What could win? Floating at “If something is right OppenheimerI will eat a shoe” levels of confidence that Oppenheimer will win.
Best Director Predictions
Greta Gerwig – Barbie
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan — Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor things
Jonathan Glazer – The zone of interest
Who could sneak in? There’s a lot to love about Alexander Payne’s The survivors (see the next few categories), and he feels extremely honored in this category. Glazer might be the one to bump to make room for Payne, but hey, The zone of interest is a complete directorial vision… and the directors will probably show up to honor that work.
Who could win? Nolan, as an apology for not giving him 100 Oscars Basic principle (Oppenheimer is also quite good).
Best Actor Predictions
Jeffery Wright – American fiction
Paul Giamatti — The survivors
Leonardo DiCaprio — Killers of the Flower Moon
Bradley Cooper – Master
Cillian Murphy— Oppenheimer
Who could sneak in? While I am skeptical about it Masterthere’s less competition in the acting category than you might think, giving Cooper room to squeeze in. Yet there has been little love for the down-the-middle biopic Rustin this awards season and its star, Colman Domingo. Still, we hope he makes it to the red carpet somehow: the man is fashionable!
Who could win? This one feels tight, with Murphy and Giamatti receiving high praise from various voting bodies all season and Wright being a dark horse favorite, but the impact of Oppenheimer in other categories, Murphy could take the lead. No, it’s not fair that he had to emote so hard in IMAX.
Predictions for Best Actress
Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a fall
Lily Gladstone — Killers of the Flower Moon
Annette Bening — Nyad
Carey Mulligan – Master
Emma Stone – Poor things
Who could sneak in? We don’t live in the worst timeline because Sandra Hüller, who rose to international fame in 2016 Toni Erdmann, both anchored Anatomy of a fall And The zone of interest and is nominated in a category usually reserved for American actors. More on the cusp, as I see it, is Annette Bening, a four-time nominee who has never won. The pedigree gives her an edge here, but she won’t win and could potentially lose the spot to Margot Robbie, who Barbie work far beyond all expectations.
Who could win? A close call between two stones, but even with the season evenly divided between them, I’m leaning towards Lily Gladstone, who enters the arena with the aura of breakout energy.
Predictions for Best Supporting Actor
Ryan Gosling -Barbie
Robert de Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Charles Melton — May December
Mark Ruffalo – Poor things
Robert Downey Jr. — Oppenheimer
Who could sneak in? Poor things seems to be well loved by all the awards and polling houses in the industry, but… Ruffalo did not receive a coveted SAG Award nomination, which would leave a clear path for him into this mix. But if the Poor things love is strong, Ruffalo said And Willem Dafoe bumps Charles Melton?
Who could win? Ryan Gosling is happy to be there, but this definitely goes to Robert Downey Jr. because he reminds us all that he’s actually a pretty good actor.
Predictions for Best Supporting Actress
Danielle Brooks – The color purple
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The survivors
Julianne Moore — May December
Jodie Foster Nyad
Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
Who could sneak in? Another category that looks quite closed… but is also prone to surprises. Could Danielle Brooks, Jodie Foster or Julianne Moore drop out in favor of perennial Oscar favorite Penelope Cruz? Ferrari or America Ferrera Barbie? Unfortunately, yes, which makes these predictions less robust than anything else.
Who could win? Da’Vine Joy Randolph has conquered this category among critics groups and at larger awards shows, such as the Golden Globes. Buy shares now!
Best Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a fall
The survivors
May December
Past lives
Salt burn
Who could sneak in? There is a big chance Master kicks Salt burn based on out-of-category pedigree alone, only two things: Emerald Fennell won back in this category Promising young womanand everyone is watching Salt burn right now – including the voters’ children.
Who could win? The survivors has the stamp of approval of other categories, but I wouldn’t pass it up Anatomy of a fall to achieve his great victory here. People love the movie!
Best Adapted Screenplay
Barbie
American fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor things
Who could sneak in? Barbie was a late-game addition to this category after the Academy ruled that being based on IP counts as a customization. So what could be right… probably American fiction…? The only real contender seems The zone of interestwhich is technically based on a book of the same name by Martin Amis.
Who could win? Oppenheimer may have the fuel, but this could be where voters think to reward Gerwig’s take on a toy-based film.
The Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 23 at 8:30 am EST. Then check back for the full list of nominees and predictions for each category.