Opta’s supercomputer reveals which clubs have the easiest and HARDEST fixtures in the Champions League’s new format… and it’s bad news for one of the English sides
Liverpool face one of the toughest draws in the Champions League, according to Opta’s supercomputer. Arne Slot’s men travel to Milan and Leipzig before welcoming title holders Real Madrid to Anfield.
The statistics experts have been analyzing the numbers and running algorithms in preparation for this year’s new format. They have done an extensive analysis of both teams’ matches.
This season’s edition will look slightly different to previous years, with the traditional group stage being scrapped in favour of a 36-team competition.
Each team plays eight matches against eight different teams, half at home and half away, to determine their position in the rankings.
The changes don’t end there, though. This season will see the introduction of a brand new play-off stage, with teams finishing ninth to 16th in the table competing for a place in the last 16, alongside the top eight clubs.
Much of course depends on the draw for each European powerhouse, and for one former finalist it is bad news.
Paris Saint-Germain is considered the team with the most intense games of all. The French team plays away games against Arsenal and Barcelona, and home games against Atletico Madrid and Premier League winners Manchester City.
Liverpool have the second-toughest draw, while weak Sparta Prague face away games against the English champions and German winners Bayer Leverkusen.
Meanwhile, Manchester City are seen as the big favourites for a second Champions League trophy, with Pep Guardiola’s team having a whopping 25 percent chance of winning the competition, thanks to Opta’s supercomputer.
In more than half of the scenarios (55 percent) the Premier League champions are expected to reach the semi-finals, with 95.2 percent of the scenarios almost certain to see them survive the competition.
They beat last year’s winners Real Madrid and English star Jude Bellingham is unlikely to win the title.
Italy’s Inter are surprisingly the third favourites with a 58.6 percent chance of reaching the quarter-finals and a handy 10.9 percent chance of taking home the trophy.
Manchester City are seen as big favourites for a second Champions League trophy
They beat last year’s winners Real Madrid to the title, while England star Jude Bellingham is likely to miss out on two consecutive victories
Perhaps surprisingly, Italy’s Inter are the third favourites with a 58.6 percent chance
Simone Inzaghi’s team comfortably won Serie A last season, beating a number of recent European champions on Opta’s list.
Arsenal complete the top four despite not reaching the semi-finals of the competition since 2008-09. Mikel Arteta’s side, who are fiercely contesting the Premier League title with City, win in 6.3 per cent of scenarios.
The English trio in the top seven are Liverpool, who, under new manager Arne Slot, will be hoping to repeat the success of five years ago when they beat Tottenham in the final.
Three German teams are among the ten teams with the greatest chance of success, with Red Bull Leipzig surprisingly among the favourites.
Marco Rose’s men finished fourth in the Bundesliga last season and were knocked out in the round of 16 of the Champions League.
Surprisingly, Girona are expected to reach the second round after reaching the top echelons of European football for the first time.
The Spanish club was allowed to participate in the tournament despite belonging to the City Football Group, the same holding company that also owns Manchester City.
However, it is bad news for Slovan Bratislava, as the Slovakian club has a slim zero percent chance of surprisingly winning the Champions League trophy and only a 1.2 percent chance of reaching the next round.
Arsenal complete the top four despite not reaching the semi-finals of the competition since 2008-09
The English trio in the top seven are Liverpool, who, under new manager Arne Slot (right), hope to repeat the success of five years ago.
Three German teams are among the ten teams with the best chance of success, with Red Bull Leipzig surprisingly among the favourites
Aston Villa are back in the tournament for the first time since the name change. They won the trophy in 1982, but the scientists have no ambition to do well.
The Midlands club have a one in three (32.3 percent) chance of progressing to the competition.
This season’s edition will look slightly different to previous years, with the traditional group stage being scrapped in favour of a 36-team competition.
Each team plays eight matches against eight different teams, half at home and half away, to determine their position in the rankings.
The changes don’t end there, though. This season will see the introduction of a brand new play-off stage, with teams finishing ninth to 16th in the table competing for a place in the last 16, alongside the top eight clubs.
Opta’s supercomputer also predicted which teams would have the easiest fixtures in this phase of the competition. That’s good news for Celtic fans.
Brendan Rodgers’ men have the easiest route to the last 16, with home games against Slovan Bratislava and Young Boys giving the Scottish side an unlikely chance of a second round spot.
Former winners Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Barcelona also had some of the easiest matches, while Liverpool had the second-toughest draw.
Girona are also expected to reach the second round after reaching the top echelons of European football for the first time.
Aston Villa are back in the tournament for the first time since the name change, having won the trophy in 1982, but they lack the support to do well
Brendan Rodgers’ Celtic team have the least challenging route to the last 16
The Reds play away against Milan and Leipzig and welcome Bundesliga champions Leverkusen and Real Madrid to Anfield. Paris Saint-Germain is rated as the most annoying match.
Opta’s findings were calculated by simulating the tournament 10,000 times and using the results to calculate percentages.
This year’s revamped competition kicks off on Tuesday, with Aston Villa in action at Young Boys and Liverpool playing a tough match in Milan.