Opta’s supercomputer predicts the final Premier League 2024-25 table – with Man United missing out on top four AGAIN as rivals beat them by three points, while one top team faces dramatic drop

Manchester City have been identified as the big favourites to win a fifth consecutive Premier League title by Opta’s supercomputer.

The statistics experts are known for these simulations, which offer a glimpse into how the new campaign could unfold. The season kicks off on Friday night when Manchester United host Fulham at Old Trafford, and ahead of the drama, Opta have revealed their findings.

It’s no surprise that Pep Guardiola’s team are back at the top of the table, but the percentage of Opta’s 10,000 simulations in which City finished as champions is astonishing.

They allow City to win the league in 82.2 percent of scenarios, with a 13.8 and 3.5 percent chance of finishing second and third respectively. That leaves Guardiola’s men with just a 0.4 percent chance of finishing fourth.

The findings are a major setback for Arsenal’s image of the team, which has been hot on City’s heels for the past two seasons.

Arsenal have made big strides to catch up with City, but the supercomputer still doesn’t rate their chances

Mikel Arteta’s team have long been the best side in the top flight and they finished last season in excellent form. The Gunners boss has bolstered his defence with the addition of Italian Riccardo Calafiori, but more players may be needed further forward to inspire full confidence that they can go all the way.

According to the supercomputer, Arsenal’s most likely finishing position is second, with a 48.8 percent chance, while the chance of winning the league is only 12.2 percent.

The statistics experts are clearly impressed with what they have seen from new Liverpool manager Arne Slot in pre-season. That, or the quality of the Reds’ squad, gives them confidence that they can emulate their performance from last season.

Liverpool are the only club in the top division that have not yet signed any players, but in Opta’s simulations they finish third most often, 40.2 percent of the time.

They have also been given a slim chance of winning the league, at just 5.1 percent. Last season’s top three, along with Chelsea and Newcastle, are the teams with a better chance of winning the title than 0.1.

The battle for the final Champions League spot looks set to be interesting with four teams separated by just eight per cent. Chelsea are favoured by 19.5 per cent, the Magpies by 17.5, Manchester United by 12.9 and Tottenham by 11.8.

Liverpool start the season with a very similar squad, albeit with a new manager, but are expected to repeat their third-place finish from last season.

The battle for fourth place looks set to be tight and Chelsea have just secured the final Champions League spot

Manchester United are one of three teams to finish in all 20 positions in Opta’s 10,000 simulations

Interestingly, United are one of three clubs to have finished in all 20 positions in Opta’s 10,000 simulations. The Red Devils, remarkably, have a 0.3 percent chance of finishing 18th and being relegated, according to the supercomputer.

Aston Villa, who held that position last season, are now eighth, while West Ham, who have invested heavily in their squad under new manager Julen Lopetegui, are likely to finish below Crystal Palace.

At the bottom of the table, Opta has discovered that the three promoted teams are the most likely to return to the championship straight away. Their multitude of simulations could not find much difference between their final positions.

Southampton finished bottom 28.6 percent of the time, compared to 27.4 percent for Ipswich and 23.4 percent for Leicester in the 10,000 simulations.

In contrast, Nottingham Forest, who finished 17th, finished 20th only 9.2 percent of the time.

Brighton, Fulham, Everton, Brentford, Bournemouth and Wolves completed the final few places. These clusters of teams were not easy to separate with less than one percentage point differences between the group in various positions.

The Seagulls are tipped to finish 11th under new head coach Fabian Hurzeler, the youngest manager in Premier League history.

Opta’s supercomputer believes Aston Villa will struggle to combine Champions League and domestic commitments

All three promoted teams are tipped to make a straight return to the Championship. Pictured: Ipswich boss Kieran McKenna

They have a 9.4 percent chance of finishing there, while Wolves have a 16.5 percent chance of finishing five places lower in 16th.

Everton, playing at Goodison Park for the last time this season before moving to the gleaming new stadium, sit a comfortable 13th.

The Toffees are one of eight teams to have finished last more than 100 times in the 10,000 simulations run by Opta.