Opta’s supercomputer names England’s full route to Euro 2024 glory – with a surprise opponent in the final which they would be favourites for – as well as the chances of winning in each round
Opta’s supercomputer has mapped out England’s most likely route to Euro 2024 glory.
The Three Lions are preparing for the knockout stages of the tournament in Germany, with a last-16 clash against Slovakia on Sunday.
Despite topping Group C, the Three Lions have been criticised for their performances after a 1-0 win over Serbia was followed by a pair of dull draws against Denmark and Slovenia.
Despite this, they are on the more favourable side of the draw, meaning they will not play Spain, Germany, France, Portugal or Belgium until the final.
Opta’s supercomputer have assessed England’s chances of reaching the final three stages of the tournament, and who they would most likely face in each round – including a surprise opponent in the final.
Opta’s supercomputer has named England’s likely full route to Euro 2024 glory
England have a 38.1 percent chance of reaching the final in Berlin on July 14
Spain are the team most likely to face England in the final, above the likes of France and Portugal.
Should Gareth Southgate’s side beat Slovakia as expected, they are expected to face Italy in the quarter-finals – a rematch of the 2021 European Championship final.
England have an 81.6 percent chance of reaching the quarter-finals, with Italy (56.1 percent) more likely to be the opponent than Switzerland (43.9 percent).
The Three Lions have a 55.7 percent chance of reaching the semi-finals. If they succeed, according to Opta, the greatest chance is that they will play against the Netherlands.
It looked like England would face the Netherlands in the round of 16 but then Georgia’s shock win over Portugal would change things, meaning they would face Slovakia in Gelsenkirchen instead.
Opta’s supercomputer seems to predict that the Netherlands would pass Romania in the round of 16 and then Austria in the quarter-finals.
The chance that Ronald Koeman’s team will play against England in the semi-final is 39.8 percent, followed by Austria (28.6), Turkey (18.7) and Romania (12.7).
If England win their next three games they will have a huge choice of opponents to face in the showpiece – with the Three Lions given a 38.1 per cent chance of reaching a second successive final.
France were considered favorites ahead of the tournament, Portugal have an excellent squad and Germany have home advantage.
But Opta’s Supercomputer says Spain would be favourites to face England in the final – giving Luis de la Fuente’s side a 38.1 percent chance of reaching the final, and a 27.1 percent chance of facing England in Berlin on July 14.
Germany are second favorites on that side of the draw to play England in the final with 24.6 percent, while France is only third with 21.6 percent.
England have avoided the tough side of the draw, which includes teams like France and Germany
England could face Italy in a rematch of the Euro 2020 final this time around in the quarter-finals
England’s most likely opponents in the semi-finals are the Netherlands, followed by Austria
This is followed by Portugal (15.3), Belgium (5.2), Denmark (3.6), Slovenia (1.4) and Georgia (1.1).
Spain may benefit from playing Georgia in the round of 16. Of all the remaining teams, this team is the least likely to make it to the finals.
In the quarter-finals they will play the winner of the match between Germany and Denmark. If those teams reach that stage of the competition, they may play Portugal or France in the semi-finals.
Spain is the only team that still has a 100% score in the competition, having won all three of their group stage matches.
Overall, the supercomputer predicts England will win Euro 2024 in 20 per cent of its simulations. If they did, they would win their first men’s trophy in almost 60 years.
They would also be backed to beat Spain in the final.
Southgate will hope his England side can improve their performances and build momentum in what is likely to be a difficult final.
They are delighted with Phil Foden’s return to training today after returning to Germany last night following the birth of his third child.
The Football Association confirmed on Wednesday that the Manchester City star had returned to the UK due to an ‘urgent family matter’.
Foden boarded a plane back to England on Tuesday immediately after the draw against Slovenia to be with his family.
The striker’s partner, Rebecca Cooke, has had a baby boy and Foden has quickly returned to Germany. He is back training at England’s Weimar base ahead of their last-16 clash with Slovakia on Sunday.
Many eyes will be on the England team selection after their disappointing performances in the group stage.
One particular position will be in midfield, after Trent Alexander-Arnold and Conor Gallagher both struggled alongside Declan Rice.
Kobbie Mainoo played a positive role as a substitute against Slovenia and could be an option.
There were also rumours that Anthony Gordon and Cole Palmer would make appearances after their impressive cameos.