Opinion poll ‘Nostradamus’ shows what influence the hurricanes will have on his election forecast
Historian Allan Lichtman discussed how the impact of Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton could affect the results of the 2024 election.
Lichtman is an American University professor whose election model has correctly predicted virtually every presidential election winner since 1984.
The 77-year-old announced early last month that he believes Vice President Kamala Harris will win the November election against former President Donald Trump.
But a lot has happened since his announcement. The devastation caused by Hurricane Helene and Milton is expected to be disastrous when it makes landfall in Florida late Wednesday.
“The hurricane is a humanitarian catastrophe, and it is obviously critical that the response is as effective as possible,” Lichtman told Newsweek.
Historian Allan Lichtman, known for successfully predicting nearly every presidential election winner since 1984, discussed how the devastating hurricanes could affect the election. He said they have no influence on his modeling work
Hurricane Helene killed more than 230 people when it made landfall less than two weeks ago. Hurricane Milton will hit a number of areas that have already been hit hard.
But that does not mean that Lichtman is changing his prediction now.
“However, the storm will not impact the economic key in the short or long term,” he said.
“It will not push us into a recession in the coming weeks, nor impact the entire record of real per capita growth during the Biden period, which is twice the average of the previous two terms,” he explained out.
It comes as the series of monster storms is having a huge impact on people in the south. Hurricane Helene alone could cost as much as $160 billion in damage.
Hurricane Helene killed more than 230 people and caused billions in damage. Now Hurricane Milton, which hit Florida on Wednesday, is being described as a “once in a century” storm
Allan Lichtman predicted Harris would win the 2024 election using his model that contains 13 keys
Some have suggested that the hurricanes are the so-called October surprise of the 2024 presidential election season, an event with the potential to completely shake up the race.
But Lichtman previously said the October surprise is one of the “biggest myths” of American politics and that he never changed his forecast to respond to it.
The historian’s system for predicting elections is based on thirteen so-called keys that he developed in 1981 together with his geophysicist friend Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
Lichtman has said the Keys could stand the test of any October surprise that could burden either candidate.
It comes as the Biden administration, governors in multiple states and lawmakers on both sides of the aisle battle misinformation about the response to the storm.
The 13 keys include: medium-term gain, incumbency, primary contest, third party, short-term economics, long-term economics, policy change, social unrest, White House scandal, incumbent charisma, challenger charisma, foreign policy failure, and success in the field of foreign policy. .
As a Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris must lose six of them to be declared a loser under the model.
When Harris took over the top of the ticket, she held only three keys: party mandate/midterm win, incumbency, and incumbent charisma.”
Allan has said the White House controlling party gained House seats between midterm elections and argued that Democrats did better than expected in 2022 despite still losing House seats — meaning the key for the interim profit is incorrect.