One in four properties in England will be at risk of flooding by 2050 due to climate change, a new report has warned.
The Environment Agency (EA) found that flood risk in England is much higher than previously estimated, with 6.3 million properties currently at risk.
The new data shows that 4.6 million homes and businesses are currently at risk of surface water flooding due to rainfall.
London is the worst affected area, with more than 300,000 properties already at high risk of flooding.
However, the EA also took the warming climate into account in its initial assessment.
Worryingly, this suggests that as many as eight million homes and businesses are at risk of flooding over the next 25 years.
The new report comes after Storm Daragh brought devastating flooding that caused widespread property damage and disruption, leaving five dead and thousands without power.
Friends of the Earth campaigner Alison Dilworth said: ‘This report is yet another stark warning about the growing threat the climate crisis poses to people, homes and communities across the country.’
After Storm Darragh left thousands of people without power, the Environment Agency now warns that one in four homes could be at risk of flooding by 2050
The Environment Agency expects the risk of flooding across the country to increase significantly as a result of climate change. This map shows the percentage of homes in areas with a high or medium risk of flooding by surface water
The EA divides flood risks into three categories: flooding by sea, by rivers, and flooding of surface water by undrained rainwater.
Of these, surface water flooding currently puts the most properties at risk, defined by the EA as a one in 1,000 chance of flooding.
The risk of surface flooding is significantly higher than the previous estimate from 2018, but this is largely due to better predictive methods rather than increasing the risk.
Yet the EA report made a worrying discovery that more than 184,000 properties currently at risk of flooding would experience flooding of 30cm or more.
At this depth, floodwaters can be powerful enough to move cars, causing massive property damage and significant disruption.
As the report notes, these risks will increase significantly as climate change leads to wetter winter months.
Although a warmer climate may make some regions drier, warmer air can hold a greater amount of water, leading to more intense periods of heavy rainfall.
Previous studies have shown that the intensity of stormy days in Britain increased by an average of 20 percent between October 2023 and March 2024.
There are currently more than 6 million properties in England at risk of flooding. This includes 2.4 million properties at risk of being flooded by rivers or seas, which could lead to particularly deep flooding. Pictured: The River Severn bursts its banks at Bewdley, Worcestershire, after Storm Darragh
Rising sea levels will bring a much greater risk of coastal flooding. A previous study has found that large parts of the UK coastline are at risk of being flooded by 2100. This map shows the areas where the current annual costs of flood damage (left) are expected to increase over the next 80 years (right)
Similarly, the EA’s new analysis highlights the growing risk of flooding from rivers and the sea.
The report estimates that 2.4 million properties are at risk of flooding from the river or sea – a slight decrease from the 2.6 million estimated in 2018.
However, the number of properties in the highest risk category, which has a one in 30 chance of flooding in a given year, has increased by 88 percent, partly due to better data and modelling.
The report shows that 367,900 homes and businesses are located in areas with high or medium flood risk.
Of these, more than half are concentrated in the East Midlands, Yorkshire and Humber, and South East.
Worryingly, the EA predicts that if these areas experience flooding, 163,000 people will experience flooding of 30cm or more.
Like the risk of surface water flooding, the number of properties threatened by the sea and rivers is expected to increase as a result of climate change.
The EA estimates that 3.1 million homes and businesses will be at risk of flooding from the sea or river by mid-century.
The Environment Agency now estimates that 3.1 million homes and businesses are at risk of being flooded by the sea or river by 2050. A previous study suggests this will come at a huge cost to Britain that could run into billions of pounds.
The Environment Agency says rising sea levels and more intense storms due to climate change put more than 100,000 homes at risk of being destroyed by coastal erosion before the end of the century. Pictured: Storm Darragh hits the Cornish coast
The EA estimates that up to 35 percent of coastal areas in the East of England and Yorkshire and the Humber will be at risk from coastal erosion by 2105
Since 1990, the average sea level around the British coast has risen by almost 20 cm.
Recent studies show that flood damage is expected to increase by more than 25 percent if no action is taken to combat climate change and rising sea levels.
Parts of the south-east and north-west of England, south Wales and central Scotland are expected to be worst affected as existing flood defenses have been overwhelmed.
Likewise, rising sea levels and more intense storms will have a knock-on effect on coastal erosion, putting even more homes at risk.
The EA’s analysis includes the first national assessment of coastal erosion risks since 2017.
It showed that the number of homes at risk of being lost to the sea will increase to 3,500 by 2050, and more than double to 10,100 by the end of the century.
Julie Foley, director of flood risk strategy at the EA, said: ‘We have transformed our understanding of the risk of flooding and coastal erosion in England in recent years, using the best available data from the Environment Agency and local authorities. such as improved modeling and technological advancements.
‘Providing the country with the best available information on the risk of flooding and coastal erosion is critical to ensuring that policy makers, practitioners and communities are ready to adapt to flooding and coastal change.’