Officials are warning that wildfires in Canada will continue to burn with greater intensity this summer, potentially sending smoke intermittently over the lower 48 states in the coming months.
Forecasts prepared by Natural Resources Canada indicate that wildfires will rage in larger areas of the forest in June, July, August and September than in previous years.
The smoke that sent U.S. air quality numbers to record levels last week may return during this year’s wildfire season.
The extent to which smoke from Canada is sent to the lower 48 states is determined by wind patterns. As long as the fires are burning, atmospheric currents can send the smoke into the lower 48 states.
Last week’s fierce fires were thought to have been caused at least in part by a lightning strike, which ignited the fires in mostly southeastern Quebec, as well as jet streams that forced smoke over the East Coast and Midwest.
That left residents of New York City and Philadelphia, among others, in thick smoke that turned the sky yellow and caused officials to warn people to stay indoors.
Officials have warned that wildfires in Canada will continue to burn with increased intensity this summer
The extent to which smoke from Canada is sent into the lower 48 states is also determined by wind patterns. In the photo, New York City is smothered in smoke, sending air quality ratings to their lowest levels on record. Pictured is the Manhattan Bridge on June 8
Smoke from Canada’s wildfires casts a haze over the Philadelphia skyline as seen from Camden, New Jersey, on June 7
June 6, 7, and 8 were three of the worst days for smoke from wildfires in recorded U.S. history in terms of the amount of pollutants in the atmosphere. according to the Stanford ECHO Lab.
New York City and Philadelphia were some of the hardest hit locations for the smoke. A yellow haze came over the Big Apple early in the week as health officials warned of the potential dangers.
“Canadian wildfires are a common exposure for almost all New Yorkers right now,” Acting Health Commissioner James McDonald said at the time.
“Our risk from this exposure is based on our own personal underlying health condition.
“Those New Yorkers with underlying conditions such as lung or heart disease are at increased risk from this exposure and are encouraged to modify their activities accordingly.”
On June 7, Philadelphia passed New York City for global air quality. The city’s health department announced that the area was in “code red” due to unhealthy air.
Philadelphia officials urged people to wear a high-quality mask outdoors, to avoid strenuous activities, and to circulate air in the home using fans and AC units.
That smoke could continue for weeks as officials say there is no immediate end in sight for the fires in Canada.
“Our models show that this could be a particularly severe wildfire season this summer,” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said at a news conference last week. CBC reportedwhile more than 400 fires continued to burn.
The director-general of the Department of Natural Resources’ Northern Forestry Centre, Mike Norton, told reporters that the number of fires this early in the season was abnormal and urged Canadians to exercise “extreme caution”.
Maps from Natural Resources Canada predict how wildfire severity will increase across the country this year.
In June, July and August, parts of the central parts of the country are expected to experience “far above average” wildfire intensity. By September, levels will be “above average” in most parts of the country.
In Quebec and eastern regions where many of the most recent wildfires raged, wildfire incidence is expected to return to normal in September.
Regions projected to have both the largest increases in wildfires and the most severe fires, in absolute terms, are those along the western land border between the US and Canada.
States along that border are Washington, Montana, North Dakota, and Minnesota.
“These fires are still burning and will continue to burn for days to come,” said Peter DeCarlo, an associate professor of environmental health and engineering at Johns Hopkins University. during a video briefing on Friday.
“Whether we see effects here in Baltimore or along the East Coast has a lot to do with where the wind is blowing at any given time.”
Nearly 250 wildfires have now burned nearly 10 million acres of forest in Canada
JUNE and JULY: Maps showing the relationship between predicted severity and average monthly or seasonal severity. Regions filled in dark red are where severity is expected to be ‘well above average’ compared to previous years
AUGUST and SEPTEMBER: Maps showing the relationship between predicted severity and average monthly or seasonal severity. Regions filled in dark red are where severity is expected to be ‘well above average’ compared to previous years
The Detroit skyline on June 7 is covered in smoke from wildfires in Canada
Scientists warn wildfires are likely to continue as the planet warms, creating an ideal environment for fires.
Canada had an extremely dry and snow-free winter, as a result of which all 10 provinces are currently experiencing conditions called abnormal drought, moderate or severe drought, according to the Canadian government’s drought tracker.
In June 2021, Canada experienced its hottest day on record when the city of Lytton, in British Columbia, reached 121 degrees Fahrenheit, breaking the previous record of 113 degrees.
Dry, warm weather also brings more lightning. Half of Canada’s wildfires are caused by lightning; the other half by humans. Fires caused by lightning also tend to be more destructive.
Some scientists believe rising global temperatures could affect the flow of the jet stream, weakening it. That allow air to sit and warm up longer.
Canada’s natural resources agency says climate change could potentially double the amount of burned area by the end of this century.
For Canada, this represents a potential problem for the timber industry, as well as the destruction of valuable ecosystems.
Smoke billows from the fire at the Donnie Creek Complex, south of Fort Nelson, British Columbia, on June 3
According to the Stanford ECHO Lab, June 6, 7 and 8 were three of the worst days for smoke from wildfires in recorded U.S. history in terms of the amount of pollutant in the atmosphere.
Some have argued that the fires and resulting smoke could have been avoided with better forest management, claiming that too few controlled burns were committed to clear the forest of combustible residue.
In 2020, four scientists wrote a paper published Advances in disaster science saying that Canada was not spending enough money on forest management.
“Wildlife firefighting agencies in Canada are at a tipping point,” they wrote. ‘Presuppression and repression costs are increasing, but program budgets are not.’
In July 2021, the editors of the Canadian newspaper Globe and Mail warned that more needed to be done to control burns and reduce the problem of wildfires running out of control.