October jobs report shows slowest growth in 4 years in shock data days before presidential election
By Tilly Armstrong Assistant consumer editor for Dailymail.Com
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Job creation slowed last month to the weakest pace since December 2020, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday.
Employers added an estimated 12,000 jobs in October, a sharp decline from September and well below estimates of a 100,000 job increase.
Boeing’s ongoing strike and the devastating impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton affected the figures, the Department of Labor said.
The report sparked fears of weakness in the economy just days before the presidential election.
However, the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1 percent, in line with economists’ expectations.
Numbers are a ‘catastrophe’, says Trump
“This jobs report is a catastrophe and definitively shows how seriously Kamala Harris has destroyed our economy,” Donald Trump’s campaign said in a statement.
“In one month, Kamala’s failed economic agenda destroyed nearly 30,000 private sector jobs and nearly 50,000 manufacturing jobs,” said Karoline Leavitt, the Trump Campaign’s national press secretary.
“Working families are being ripped off by Harris-Biden’s economic agenda. Kamala broke the economy. President Trump will fix it.”
Should this set alarm bells ringing?
“Despite the weak news, today’s report should not raise alarm bells for job seekers, workers or policymakers – especially if the impact of the hurricane and strike proves temporary,” said Cory Stahle, economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab.
He said it would be a real concern if future reports were similarly weak, with limited job growth and continued downward revisions to previous data.
“But for now, a soft landing is still on the table, although this will require stronger job growth and steady unemployment in the coming months,” he added.
“For policymakers, this report is unlikely to change plans too much, but we can probably expect more rate cuts and support for the labor market on the horizon.”
Monthly average down
After the data released Friday, average job growth over the past three months fell to 104,000.
According to the Ministry of Labor, this is a decrease from 189,000 in the previous six months.
Despite everything, the numbers still point to a “fundamentally slowing labor market,” said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Asset Management. The New York Times.
Presidential elections in sight
The figures come with less than a week until the presidential election – with the economy at the forefront of voters’ minds.
The weak jobs number for October “casts a dark shadow heading into next week,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. CNBC.
The report is the last major piece of economic data to be released ahead of the election.
Downward revisions from previous months
October’s weak jobs report also included downward revisions to previous months’ data.
Job growth in August was reduced to 78,000, while the number fell to 223,000 in September.
Together, the revisions have reduced the total number of jobs by 112,000.
Stock markets up
Wall Street largely ignored the pre-bell numbers as stock market futures rose.
“Markets are rightly avoiding an overreaction,” Kyle Chapman, an analyst at Ballinger Group, told The New York Times.
The lower-than-expected employment data raised expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates again at its next meeting next week.
Investors now see a greater than 99 percent chance of a 25 basis point cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Impact of strikes and storms
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report, Boeing’s strike likely eliminated 44,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector, which lost a total of 46,000 jobs.
Some 33,000 union members have gone on strike since September 13, dealing a damaging blow to the aerospace manufacturer.
It also noted that the devastating hurricanes Helene and Milton, which hit large parts of the country last month, would have had an effect on employment figures.
However, it said that “it is not possible to quantify the net effect” of the storms on total jobs.
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