Now they blame Brexit and ‘Euroscepticism’ for Britain’s decline in birth rate, as experts say ‘political polarisation’ is responsible for falling fertility

Britain’s falling fertility rate could have been made worse by Brexit, a leading European think tank has claimed.

A report from the Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) points to ‘Euroscepticism’ as the reason for Britain’s recent falling interest rates.

But an expert speaking at the unveiling of the Society at a Glance paper went a step further last week (June 20), claiming that Brexit could lead to young couples deciding not to have children.

Overall, the article concluded that the total fertility rate (TFR) had on average more than halved in OECD countries since the 1960s.

On average, women had 3.3 children in 1960, but this dropped to 1.5 children in 2022.

Britain was slightly above average when it came to declining fertility rates – British women had 2.7 children in 1960, falling to 1.5 children in 2021 – the latest annual figures are available from the OECD.

When asked whether fertility was linked to political changes, Brexit was cited as an example of why younger couples might choose not to have a child.

Vienna-based researcher Tomas Sobotka told the meeting: ‘I would like to mention one factor, which is the political polarization in some countries, very polarized political discourses, where the generation often feels left out of politics or politics does not reflect their views . and their needs.

‘An example could be Brexit in Britain, where this policy was overwhelmingly supported by the over-50s, while young adults have completely different views and preferences on the issue.’

Britain’s decline in fertility was significantly less than that of other leading countries, including several leading G7 countries, Italy, Japan, Canada and Germany.

In the section on perceived uncertainties that could impact fertility, the report’s authors claimed that “xenophobic reactions” and “the rise of populism” could impact fertility rates.

The report added: ‘Concerns about the future go beyond the economic impact of the 2008 recession to include xenophobic responses to the 2015 refugee crisis.

“Euroscepticism, the rise of populism and Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine all contribute to spreading a sense of uncertainty and unpredictability that expectant parents face when deciding whether to have a (new) child.”

According to the Office for National Statistics, which is responsible for collecting and analyzing statistics on British society and population, the TFR has been declining since 2010.

TFR estimates how many children a hypothetical cohort of women would expect to have at the end of their reproductive period.

The comments were criticized last night as an attempt to blame the problems on Britain’s decision to leave the EU.

Reform MP Lee Anderson said: ‘Blame everything on Brexit. England played nonsense last night, blame Brexit too.

‘We’ve probably had one of the wettest years to date, put that down to Brexit. You know what, everything bad that happens in Europe is blamed on Brexit.

‘But strangely enough, European countries have exactly the same problems as us – is that because of Brexit?

“These people are just clutching at straws. You have to take what these people say with a grain of salt.

“They need to be taken somewhere, put in a dark room and listen to whale music.”

OECD sources said that while Mr Sobotka did not contribute to the report, the authors referred to his articles in the chapter on fertility.

He was among the independent experts invited to the panel discussion – the source added that Mr Sobotka was highly regarded in the field.

Mr Sobotka later appeared to play down his comments, adding that there was no data to prove his speculations.

He said: ‘It was not my intention to suggest that Brexit would have a direct impact on fertility decisions.

‘I used the Brexit example as one of the iconic examples of political polarization, where the political representation of many countries makes life-changing long-term decisions that are not in line with the interests (and voices) of younger generations.

‘These policy differences contribute to the high levels of dissatisfaction and pessimism about future prospects among young adults in many countries today, which is one of the factors that can in turn negatively impact fertility.

‘You can probably notice a lot of ‘might’ and ‘maybe’ in my writing, because I don’t really have data and evidence to prove this connection for individual countries or make any empirical assessment, so the inference is speculative.

‘Needless to say, my views are not representative of the OECD. I was invited as an independent researcher to comment on trends and factors affecting fertility.’

The OECD has previously been accused of predicting a bleak economic outlook for the UK’s post-Brexit economy.

Days before the 2016 Brexit referendum, the OECD said Britain’s economic growth would be 3 percent lower than if it remained in the EU – the equivalent of £2,200 less per household at the time.