On February 6, powerful earthquakes instantly turned cities into rubble in a vast swathe of southern Türkiye. About 15.7 million people live in the affected area – three times the size of Belgium.
This is arguably the worst natural disaster to ever hit the country, and the world’s fifth deadliest earthquake in the past 30 years. The human losses and the damage and destruction of civilian buildings are staggering; about 49,000 people were killed and 272,860 buildings collapsed, were severely damaged, or are about to be demolished. In particularly hard-hit places, such as the ancient city of Antakya, the scenery is apocalyptic, with only one in five buildings remaining standing.
In the first days after the earthquakes, the world responded with a wave of sympathy and help. Search and rescue teams and medical crews from 88 countries rushed to help, and emergency supplies were shipped from around the world.
But to give Türkiye a fair chance to recover and rebuild requires much more resources.
The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) helped the Turkish government calculate the financial impact of the disaster and set priorities for recovery and reconstruction. The result of this joint work, the Earthquake Recovery and Reconstruction in Türkiye (TERRA), is shocking: the damage and losses caused by the disaster amount to 103.6 billion dollars, or nine percent of Türkiye’s GDP.
The replacement of 650,000 destroyed homes alone is estimated to cost $66 billion.
But even such large numbers cannot represent the loss suffered by the people of Türkiye.
At least 3.3 million people have seen their homes and belongings lost under the rubble. Many have lost family and friends and nearly two million are currently housed in tents or containers. Construction of better facilities, both temporary and permanent, is progressing at a breakneck pace, yet the majority of earthquake survivors live precarious lives in primitive conditions.
The disaster and its aftermath have left millions traumatized. The iconic residential tower, a key vehicle of Türkiye’s rapid transition from a predominantly rural country in the 1960s to one today 77 percent urbanized, has transformed in the popular mind from a symbol of success to a source of nightmares. Parts of the affected area look like a horror movie landscape, with multi-story buildings snaking at angles that seem to defy both gravity and engineering. Curtains flutter from shattered windows that will never see their owners return.
The concerns are not limited to the 11 provinces directly devastated by the earthquakes. Many had expected the next “big one” to hit Istanbul’s bustling megalopolis, with its population of more than 15 million, which also sits atop dangerous fault lines. The prospects of destruction in the south have led to fears of much worse in the north, where thousands of high-risk structures must be earthquake-proofed. The trade-off is clear to everyone: find money to retrofit now or regret the losses later.
But the heartbreak of the devastating nature of the earthquakes doesn’t end there. If Türkiye is a treasure trove of history, the Southeast is a jewel of unique brilliance, a place where the legacies of Hittite, Roman, Byzantine, Christian and Ottoman civilizations are all intertwined, especially in Antakya, a bustling city known for diversity and tolerance and the capital of Hatay province.
So much is gone now. Some of Antakya’s ancient treasures survived the earthquake intact; others may be recoverable. But the city center is completely ruined and unlivable, the charming backstreets are obliterated and devoid of life; the inhabitants are dead – 21,000 people reportedly died in Hatay province – or left. Rebuilding physical structures may be possible, but bringing back the city’s unique atmosphere can be much more challenging.
This applies to places in the affected region. When reconstruction begins, it should reflect the spirit of “building back better” and ensure that all new buildings strictly comply with zoning regulations and construction standards for seismic hazards.
But houses alone do not make a community. Far from it. For that, people need a steady job to ensure steady income; they need health care, education and other public services; they need opportunities to relax and interact with other people. Even before the earthquakes, the area was one of Türkiye’s less affluent regions, with GDP per capita ranging from 31 percent to 82 percent of the national average. It was also home to half of the 3.7 million Syrians who have been given refuge in Türkiye in the past decade.
Now it faces an exodus of an estimated three million people. For many, this outbound migration will likely be temporary. But employers everywhere worry that the workers will not return, that the trauma of losing everything will drown out local loyalties. In Kahramanmaras, an industrial city known for its ice cream and textiles, entrepreneurs report operating at barely 10 percent of their capacity. Factories and farmers alike report debilitating labor shortages.
The challenges are daunting indeed, and at UNDP we see the importance of applying development tools in coming up with solutions. Huge investments and a clear vision that builds on the region’s strengths and assets are needed to bring the affected areas back to life. There is no time to lose; from the very beginning, the emergency aid should include the idea of ”early recovery” so that aid funds are used to employ local people and buy local products.
The Turkish government has vowed not to abandon the region. However, as the TERRA has shown, the resources required to restore normal life would overwhelm the budget of virtually every single state. To rally the world behind the recovery, the European Union pledged its support at a donor conference in Brussels. More is needed.
In the face of a disaster of such unprecedented magnitude, the generosity of the international community must be equally unprecedented. Reconstruction is not just about bricks and mortar, but about lives and livelihoods, and requires a global effort.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial view of Al Jazeera.