Tuesday’s primaries mark the beginning of what will likely be an extraordinary change in the makeup of North Carolina’s U.S. House of Representatives delegation.
Ahead of this year’s elections, the Republican-controlled General Assembly redrew districts drawn by judges two years earlier. Based on past election results, it appears the changes will transform a delegation currently made up of seven Democrats and seven Republicans into one with 10 Republicans and four Democrats.
As a result of the redistricting changes, five of the fourteen incumbents are not running for another term. Democratic Reps. Jeff Jackson, Kathy Manning and Wiley Nickel decided to forego reelection bids in districts that are now much more heavily Republican-leaning. Republican Reps. Dan Bishop and Patrick McHenry are stepping aside for unrelated reasons.
Two of the seats likely to flip from Democratic to Republican have attracted a large number of candidates. A third appears poised to send North Carolina House Speaker Tim Moore to Washington.
Moore’s Republican colleagues in the General Assembly have redrawn the 14th District in a way that appears to ensure the Kings Mountain lawyer will achieve his desire to serve in Congress. Moore is leaving the state Legislature after 21 years.
Pam Genant and Brendan Maginnis are running for the Democratic nomination in the district, which includes parts of Charlotte and points west toward the foothills.
Fourteen Republicans are vying for the open 13th District, which is now shaped like a horseshoe running north, east and south around Raleigh.
Candidates include Kelly Daughtry, a Smithfield attorney, and Johnston County businessman DeVan Barbour, both of whom ran in the 2022 primary. Television ads have helped attract Wake Forest businessman Fred Von Canon and former federal prosecutor Brad Knott of Raleigh better profile. And Apex’s Josh McConkey, a doctor who served in Iraq, gained attention after winning the state lottery jackpot. The nominee will face Democrat Frank Pierce in November.
Six Republicans are running for the nomination in the currently Democratic 6th District. Blue Cross and Blue Shield lobbyist and political newcomer Addison McDowell has received the endorsement of former President Donald Trump.
McDowell’s rivals include Bo Hines, who received Trump’s endorsement before winning the GOP nomination for the 13th District in 2022, and former Rep. Mark Walker, who served six years in Congress in the region through 2020 Greensboro served.
No Democrat has filed for the seat, which stretches from Greensboro and Winston-Salem south and west to Concord.
North Carolina law allows a runoff if a candidate receives no more than 30% of the vote. The second-place candidate must request a new election, which would take place on May 14.
In the open 8th District seat, Rev. Mark Harris is running again for the Republican nomination. Harris appeared to receive the most votes in the 2018 general election for Congress, but never took office. A new election was ordered due to an investigation into absentee voting fraud, and he decided not to run for office again. He calls what has happened now a ‘manufactured scandal’.
Also in the six-candidate race is state Rep. John Bradford of Charlotte. Justin Dues is the only Democrat running in the district, which stretches from Charlotte east to Lumberton.
The 10th District opened when McHenry, who had a brief stint as Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2023, unexpectedly announced he was no longer running.
The five Republicans seeking the party’s nomination in the 10th include 2022 congressional candidate Pat Harrigan and state Rep. Gray Mills. The winner will face Democrat Ralph Scott Jr. in the November general election. and a Libertarian Party candidate.
Past election data shows there is still one likely swing district in North Carolina. First-term Democratic Rep. Don Davis is running for re-election in the 1st District. He could find himself in a rematch with Republican Sandy Smith in 2022. She is competing with ex-Army Col. Laurie Buckhout for the GOP nomination for the district in the northeastern part of the state.
Several Republican incumbents are running again, including Rep. Virginia Foxx, who is facing another Republican as she seeks an 11th term from the 5th District in northwestern North Carolina.
Republican Reps. Greg Murphy in the eastern 3rd District and David Rouzer in the southeastern 7th District are unopposed in the primary. Chuck Edwards in the far western 11th District; and Richard Hudson in the Piedmont and Sandhills 9th District are also seeking reelection and facing big-spending opponents.
Democratic Rep. Deborah Ross in the Raleigh-dominated 2nd District faces an opponent, while Rep. Valerie Foushee in the Durham-area 4th District and Rep. Alma Adams in Charlotte’s 12th District are unopposed in the primary.