The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be ‘extraordinary’ as officials estimate there could be up to 25 named storms
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) held a live briefing Thursday to discuss the preseason outlook, noting that there is an 85 percent chance of an above-normal season starting June 1 and ending November 30.
NOAA predicted that up to 13 of the named storms could become hurricanes and up to seven hurricanes could have winds of 110 miles per hour — an average season sees 14 named storms, seven of which become hurricanes and three become major ones.
The forecasts are based on the development of La Niña, a weather system that occurs when equatorial trade winds strengthen and cause ocean currents to change, and is much warmer than normal in the main hurricane development area.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be “extraordinary” as officials estimate up to 13 tropical cyclones could occur.
“The forecast … is the highest NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said at the news conference.
“This season looks to be extraordinary in a number of ways.”
The updated 2024 outlook has a probability of 70 percent, including 17 to 25 storms, eight to 13 hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes.
The previous record was in 2010, when NOAA’s forecasts showed 14 to 23 named storms that led to 12 hurricanes.
NOAA scientists predicted a rapid transition to La Niña in the coming months, which typically reduces high-altitude winds, which could reduce the strong winds that would otherwise weaken hurricanes.
The weather pattern means more instability in the atmosphere, which could fuel the development of tropical cyclones.
The 2005 hurricane season was record-breaking with 15 events, but NOAA data shows the main developing area is much warmer this year than it was 19 years ago
NOAA predicted that up to 13 of the named storms could become hurricanes and up to seven hurricanes could have winds of 110 miles per hour – an average season has 14 named storms, seven of which become hurricanes and three become major storms.
The other ingredient for this perfect storm is that ocean waters have been record warm for thirteen months in a row, which also fuels hurricanes.
Hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University said: ‘Hurricanes live on warm ocean water.
‘That’s usually fuel for the hurricane. But also when you have the warm Atlantic Ocean, that tends to push more air over the Atlantic Ocean, more upward motion, which helps support strong thunderstorms.
The 2005 hurricane season was record-breaking with 15 events, but NOAA data shows that the main developing area is much warmer this year than it was 19 years ago.
Brian McNoldy, a tropical meteorology researcher at the University of Miami, said: “We’ve never had a La Niña in history combined with such warm ocean temperatures, so that’s a bit ominous.”
McNoldy also said we could see storms earlier than normal because of the combination: Hurricane season typically peaks from mid-August to mid-October.
Record warm water appears to be the key, McNoldy said.
“Things really spiraled out of control last spring (2023) and haven’t gotten back on track since,” he said.
However, NOAA noted that it cannot know exactly when and where storms are likely to hit.