More than 15,000 people in Arizona have registered to join a new political party pushing a possible bipartisan “unity ticket” against Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
While that’s less than the population of each of the state’s 40 largest cities, it’s still a large enough number to tip the presidential election into a critical swing state. And that’s alarming for people trying to prevent Trump from winning the White House again.
The very existence of the No Labels group is fueling Democratic concerns about Trump’s chances against a sitting president facing questions about his age and record. Although it has not committed to running for president and vice president, No Labels has already secured access to ballots in Arizona and ten other states. Organizers say they are on track to reach 20 states by the end of this year and all 50 states by Election Day.
“If they have someone on the ballot who is designed to bring the country together, that clearly takes votes away from Joe Biden and not Donald Trump,” said Rodd McLeod, a Democratic strategist in Arizona.
That raises the stakes for Biden allies who are mounting a furious pressure campaign against No Labels and politicians organizing rallies with the group.
In Arizona, which Mr. Biden won by about 10,000 votes, the state Democratic Party sued Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, also a Democrat, to prevent No Labels from appearing on the ballot. The party lost in court and subsequently dropped the lawsuit. Now Democrats are pressuring Mr. Fontes to force No Labels to reveal its donors, after insinuating that the group is backed by conservatives trying to thwart Mr. Biden. No Labels has so far declined to say how it funds its work, saying it follows federal law and wants to protect the privacy of its donors.
Mr. Fontes has not commented publicly but is expected to announce a decision in the coming weeks after telling No Labels he may take action against the group for failing to register under state campaign finance law. His decision will likely be challenged in court.
Some of the anti-No Labels efforts here are quixotic. A perennial candidate from outside Phoenix signed on as a No Labels candidate and declared himself chairman of the Pinal County chapter of No Labels, in part so he could run for state office and try to force the party to pass state laws monitor campaign finance reporting.
“It’s a bit like a performance art piece,” said Richard Grayson, who endorsed Mr. Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris immediately after switching to No Labels.
Biden’s narrow victory in 2020 came with the help of anti-Trump Republicans, right-wing independents and voters who disliked both candidates but saw Mr. Biden as a better option than Mr. Trump. He needs their support to win a rematch.
In Arizona, Mr. Biden was supported by former Republican Senator Jeff Flake and Cindy McCain, the widow of Senator John McCain — a lifelong Republican who publicly clashed with Mr. Trump.
If even a small number of those voters were to back a No Labels candidate next year, Mr. Biden could fall short.
No third party candidate has ever won the presidency or even come close. In modern times, Ross Perot was the strongest performer in 1992, but he did not receive a single electoral vote. However, he did gain a reputation as a spoiler of then-President George HW Bush.
Democrats blame Green Party candidate Jill Stein for spoiling Hillary Clinton’s would-be victory in 2016, when Ms. Stein received more votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than Trump’s margin of victory. In 2020, a shift of just 45,000 votes in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin would have been enough to tilt the election from Mr. Biden to Mr. Trump.
“We need to convince the political world that it’s a bad idea to be involved in this,” said Matt Bennett, executive vice president of the center-left group Third Way. “If you are a potential candidate of theirs, then you are Jill Stein 2.0.”
But No Labels supporters insist the political climate heading into 2024 will be very different, with large swathes of voters in both parties exhausted by years of unrest and chaos in Washington.
“These are unprecedented times,” said Benjamin Chavis, former head of the NAACP who now works with No Labels. “Never before have such a large number of Americans expressed their concerns, their positions and their aspirations for more choices.”
At least 13,500 people have registered with No Labels in Arizona’s two largest counties, including Phoenix and Tucson, and about 1,900 in the state’s other counties, according to the most recent figures available.
About half of August’s registrants were previously independent and another quarter were newly registered, according to Sam Almy, a Democratic data analyst based in Phoenix. The rest came largely from the two major parties: 14% were previously Democrats and 11% Republicans.
Although only about a quarter of newly registered No Labels members came from the major parties, they are much more likely to vote. About 63% of former Democrats and 65% of former Republicans voted in 2020, while only 45% of former independents cast a ballot.
No Labels party members are younger. More than half are under 35, according to Mr. Almy, and only 5% are over 65. Twelve percent of them live in the 4th Congressional District, which includes Arizona State University.
When No Labels nominates candidates, anyone can vote for them, whether they are members of the party or not.
No Labels leaders say they will decide after the Super Tuesday primaries in March whether to field a candidate, who will be nominated at a convention in Dallas in April.
The group has not said how the candidate will be chosen, but hopes to release a plan next month. No Labels has ties to moderates from both parties. Among them: Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, former independent Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, former Republican Governor Jon Huntsman of Utah and Republican Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland. The group could also choose a business leader or a retired military officer.
No Labels chief strategist Ryan Clancy said their decision would not be influenced by head-to-head polling of the chosen candidate against Mr Trump and Mr Biden. Such a poll would be meaningless because a large group of voters will not know anything about the No Labels candidate before a campaign is launched, he said.
No Labels’ leaders vehemently deny they will be a spoiler for Trump and say they will only move forward if their candidate has a path to victory. But it is unclear how certain that path will have to be.
“This is something we’re still working on,” Mr. Clancy said.
This story was reported by The Associated Press.