Nintendo has saved the Switch’s 2023, but Switch 2 still looms

Going into the latest Nintendo Direct, the Nintendo Switch release schedule had never looked so bare. There was no new Nintendo exclusive planned after next month Picmin 4, and third-party publishers had almost all abandoned the legacy platform. Expansions for Mario Kart and Pokémon would keep two of the Switch’s biggest franchises alive until the end of the year, but otherwise there was a big question mark over the future of a console that Nintendo has said won’t be available until April 2024. to replace. earliest.

Nintendo even had a few surprises up its sleeve, filling up the Switch’s slate for 2023 quite nicely: a new 2D Mario, a new WarioWare, Detective Pikachu returnsand a remake of Super Mario RPG are all due before the end of the year. But apart from a new Peach game and a remaster of Luigi’s Mansion: Dark Moon, the Switch’s 2024 remains something of a mystery. Nintendo has done its best, but there’s still no disguising the fact that this is a console in its final years – perhaps its final year.

What does the Nintendo Switch release schedule look like now?

You can’t accuse Nintendo’s internal studios of slacking. Between now and the end of 2023 – and in the wake of a major hit The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom — Nintendo will release Everyone 1-2-Switch!, Picmin 4, Super Mario Bros. Miracle, WarioWare: Move It!And Super Mario RPGplus Detective Pikachu returns in partnership with The Pokémon Company and developer Creatures Inc.

It’s a solid enough lineup looking to capitalize on the runaway success of The Super Mario Bros. movie and please casual and casual Nintendo fans alike. Miracle shouldn’t be underestimated: 2D Mario games still have huge appeal, and if you buy the Switch’s Deluxe Edition of New Super Mario Bros. YOU, this is the first in more than a decade. Nintendo could have a big hit on its hands this holiday season.

Add to these titles two new waves of content for the Switch’s best-selling game, Mario Kart 8 Deluxeand the Hidden gem of Area Zero extension for Pokémon Scarlet And purple, and the Switch calendar looks vibrant enough. You could almost call it busy.

The problem arises when you look beyond Nintendo’s own efforts. Warner Bros. is the latest major publisher trying to launch its franchises on Switch: it will bring Mortal Kombat 1 to the platform in September and Hogwarts legacy, finally, in November. Both versions will be closely monitored to see how well current AAA games can perform on Switch. Sega also offers its support in the form of Persona 5 Tactics (November) and Sonic superstars (autumn), though Persona 3 reloaded seems to be leaving Switch behind. Ubisoft is good for another Just Dance and then some Mario + Rabbids Sparks of Hope DLC.

Image: Nintendo EPD/Nintendo

However, apart from this, the schedule has been propped up with indie ports like Vampire survivorssecond-rate service games like MythForce And Palia, and a series of remasters and re-releases such as the Batman: Arkham games, Metal Gear Solid, Star Ocean and Nintendo’s very own Pikmin. It’s clear that Nintendo itself puts in a lot of work to make new Switch releases feel fresh.

As we look to 2024, things get a lot darker. from Ubisoft Prince of Persia: The Lost Crown arrives in January, but nothing else has a set release date. Nintendo continues its Mario movie push with the Peach and Luigi games, and Professor Layton and the New World of Steam will appear at some point; so, presumably, it is almost mythical Hollow Knight: Silksong.

At this point, we’re starting to run out of announced games altogether. There’s one more big one on the board: Metroid Prime 4though it’s fair to wonder if Nintendo is considering holding back this title – long, long in development – for the Switch’s successor, or perhaps for a dual-platform bridge release, in the vein of The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild. As far as the rumors go, the strongest is that Switch will be remastering two other Zelda games – The Wind Waker And twilight princess – exist, and may even be finished, but Nintendo has yet to find a suitable place for it in the release calendar.

Why doesn’t Nintendo just make more Switch games – or move to a Switch 2?

Nintendo is in a bind with the Switch. The Switch is getting old, but it’s too successful to replace – and the games sell so well in the long run that it doesn’t always make sense to release sequels. “It’s going to be tough to maintain the Switch’s sales momentum into its seventh year,” Nintendo president Shuntaro Furukawa acknowledged during a recent investor call.

The console, which was based on older technology even when it was released in 2017, is simply too technically behind the curve to keep up with current developments in gaming, and the larger multi-platform publishers have lost interest. In fact, it’s possible that even Nintendo’s internal studios are now banking titles for the Switch’s successor.

Ubisoft boss Yves Guillemot has said Nintendo advised against last year’s sequel Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle, with the platform owner saying it’s better to do one iteration of a game per console generation. “We should have waited,” Guillemot admitted in one recent interview with GamesIndustry.bizexplaining that the sales curve of a Mario game on Switch is much, much longer than usual on other platforms: “On Nintendo, games like this never die.”

If Nintendo takes its own advice, it was never likely to be one mario kart 9 or a sequel to Super Mario Odyssey on the Switch, as such sequels would only cannibalize the long sales of their predecessors. It seems that one of the reasons we’re not getting more Switch games in recent years is, paradoxically, that Switch games are selling too well. It’s a good problem to have. So is the problem Nintendo faces in timing its console replacement.

From a software perspective, it seems like now is the perfect time to replace the Switch – the technology is too old and the games are drying up. But from a hardware perspective, it may be true that the successor just isn’t ready, but it’s also true that Nintendo doesn’t want to move too quickly. Switch sales are slowing down, but still have decent momentum with an expected 15 million units this year, while the platform’s overall audience is huge: it’s the third best-selling console of all time. Nintendo won’t be too keen on abandoning all those customers in favor of a leap into the great unknown, even if it can only feed them with indie games and DLC.

Will Nintendo announce any more Switch exclusives after this Nintendo Direct before we hear about its successor? It seems unlikely, but the truth is we don’t know – and it’s quite possible Nintendo doesn’t know either. With 125 million consoles sold, the company can afford to spend a quiet year or two taking its time and choosing the moment.