Nikki Haley beats Joe Biden by five points in Daily Mail 2024 national poll

With 16 days to go before Iowa Republicans become the first in the country to choose the candidate they want for the 2024 elections, an exclusive DailyMail.com poll shows Nikki Haley is the best candidate to replace President Joe Biden defeat.

Our survey of 984 likely voters shows she would beat Biden by five points if an election were held tomorrow.

In contrast, former President Donald Trump would win by three points, while Ron DeSantis would lose by two points, reinforcing the sense that his campaign for president is on life support.

Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, has seen her shares rise in recent weeks, fueled by a series of strong debate performances and major endorsements.

And the results of our survey with JL Partners support her argument that she is better positioned than other candidates to win the 2024 election.

Haley would defeat President Joe Biden by five points if the 2024 election were held tomorrow

It gives her 40 percent support to Biden's 35 percent in a head-to-head matchup.

Trump would take 46 percent to Biden's 43 percent, while DeSantis would take 41 percent to Biden's 43 percent, all with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

Haley's advantage lies in her ability to win over Democrats. Our poll shows her polling one in 10 Democrats, almost twice as many as her rivals.

But she is struggling with the Republican base. She takes 69 percent of Republican voters, while DeSantis (80 percent) and Trump (87 percent) can count on considerably more.

“This is a good poll for Nikki Haley,” said James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners.

“She is an exceptional performer among independents and, if you look closer, arguably has more room to grow, as you would expect a significant portion of Republicans currently wandering to ultimately support her against Biden.

'Yet in its current form this is an artificial image. Haley is winning a significant portion of Biden voters in the polls purely because she is not Trump.

“We expect this to change as voters on the left become more aware of her positions.

“DeSantis, meanwhile, is struggling with voters as a whole. The great irony of all this is that DeSantis, on paper, is the best candidate to beat Trump in the primaries because of the more conservative nature of the Republican electorate.”

The fieldwork was conducted before Haley responded to a question about the causes of the Civil War. She attracted negative headlines for days after failing to mention slavery.

However, Haley does not attract as many Republican supporters as her rivals. About 69 percent of Republican supporters say they would vote for Haley in the general election if she were the candidate. But Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are doing better

Trump, who saw her accept Haley's resignation as US ambassador to the United Nations in October 2018, remains the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination

Polls show Trump will have an advantage in Iowa when Republicans choose their candidate on January 15.

Voters tend to be more conservative than those in New Hampshire, which holds a primary eight days later.

Still, a super PAC has stepped up its efforts in Iowa as part of a plan to capitalize on Haley's momentum and position her as the best alternative to Trump before she looks for even better results in New Hampshire and her home state of the South Carolina.

According to a New Hampshire poll, she would trail Trump by just three points if other candidates dropped out.

Experts have begun to say that a nomination race that seemed like nothing more than a Trump coronation could become a real contest after all.

And our numbers show why that is so: Haley is building a very different coalition of voters than the one that elected Trump in 2020.

So while she loses some Trump supporters, she gains 2020 Biden supporters, according to our flowcharts. At the same time, Biden's support drops by eight points if the choice does not go to Trump or DeSantis, both of whom appear to promote Democratic turnout.

Haley's coalition is very different from Trump's. She loses some of Trump's support in 2020, but gains among independents and voters who chose Biden in 2020

An aerial photo shows homes in Jesup, Iowa. Republican presidential candidates are currently sweeping through Iowa as the January 15 Republican caucus approaches

Democratic strategists believe voters will return to Biden as the race strengthens and the choice becomes clear.

But our poll also found that voters are not enthusiastic about an 81-year-old running for re-election.

Six in 10 voters, including nearly a third of Democrats, say Joe Biden should not run for president in 2024.

And nearly half of Democrats say it is not too late to have him replaced as their party's nominee.