NIH says halving cancer deaths by 2047 is ‘impossible’ based on current trends – major blow to President Biden’s Operation Moonshot
Halving the number of cancer deaths by 2047 will be ‘impossible’ based on current trends, government health chiefs have said.
Researchers at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) said the current rate of decline in cancer deaths is 2.3 percent per year.
But it would need to be 2.7 percent to meet President Joe Biden’s Cancer Moonshot goal of cutting the rate by 50 percent in 25 years.
The researchers said the lack of equal access to cancer-related health care needs to be addressed if there is any hope of reaching the goal. Data shows that cancer death rates have dropped 33 percent since 1991, preventing 3.8 million deaths, but that’s not enough.
US President Joe Biden delivers remarks on his Cancer Moonshot Initiative at the John F Kennedy Library and Museum on September 12, 2022 in Boston, Massachusetts. The measure aims to halve cancer deaths over the next 25 years and provide more support to caregivers and survivors
The graph above shows the cancer diagnosis rates (top lines) and death rates (bottom lines) for men (red) and women (blue) since the beginning of this century. It shows that the overall mortality rate is on a downward trend, while the number of cases is stable
Dr. Monica Bertagnolli, director of the National Cancer Institute, who co-authored an accompanying commentary on the study, said: “Achieving a 50 percent reduction in cancer mortality in 25 years will be impossible without cancer health equity. to deal with.
“For several of the strategies highlighted in this study, improving access is critical.”
Dr. Bertagnolli revealed last year that she herself had been diagnosed with breast cancer at an early stage.
On February 2, 2022, President Biden announced his cancer mortality target as part of Operation Moonshot.
President Biden said ending cancer “as we know it” was one of the reasons he ran for president.
The fight against cancer is personal to Biden, who lost his son Beau to brain cancer in 2015.
There is reason for optimism in the data, the NIH researchers said. Lung cancer deaths fell 4.7 percent per year from 2014 to 2019, while the colorectal cancer death rate fell 2 percent per year from 2010 to 2019. Between 2013 and 2019, the number of breast cancers fell by 1.2 percent per year.
However, the trajectory for other types of cancer was considered “less promising” by the researchers.
To meet the Moonshot goal, progress for lung, colorectal, and breast cancer deaths must be maintained or advanced, while new ideas for prostate, liver, pancreatic, and other cancers are needed.
There are also significant differences in cancer mortality by race and ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and geography in the US.
In 2019, black men and women had the highest cancer death rates compared to any major racial/ethnic group.
Cancer death rates are also much higher in the lowest-income counties compared to the highest-income counties — 56 percent higher for those 25-64 and 14 percent higher for those 65 and older.
The researchers suggested opportunities to move closer to the Cancer Moonshot, including reducing smoking and obesity.
They also referred to increasing colonoscopy and mammography rates, but did not suggest how this might be done.