Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans (Saturday 4:30 PM EST/9:30 PM GMT)
What the Chargers need to do to win: The league’s stingiest defense can’t afford the complacency that put Tampa Bay behind them by 40 points in December. The Chargers’ stats look good — they gave up the fewest touchdowns (31) in the regular season, including 18 of 39 red-zone drives, a league-leading efficiency rating of 46% — but would be even better without a few differences. Conveniently, the away day won’t faze them given their 6-3 record on the road this season. LA should provide an undersized offense in Houston if they can forget their wild card shocker against Jacksonville two years ago.
What the Texans need to do to win: To counter the Texans’ oddity as underdogs in their own building, Houston offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik needs to fire up CJ Stroud. The quarterback has looked like a beaten man at times this season, dealing with a weak offensive line and a receiving group that was missing key players. If Slowik calls up some quick plays to march into the Texans for an early score, Houston can start to feel lucky.
Key player: Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers. The rookie has taken over LA’s offensive production. McConkey’s main assets are his versatility and route running. He can line up inside or outside the slot and has confused opposing defenses with his ability to get into traffic. Guess Detroit’s Amon-Ra St Brown is just hitting the ground running faster.
Prediction: Chargers over Texans
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Saturday 8:00 PM EST / Sunday 1:00 AM GMT)
What the Steelers need to do to win: Pittsburgh needs a miracle. To have even the slightest hope of success, Mike Tomlin needs to have a long talk with George Pickens about his role in the offense. The wide receiver, perhaps a top-10 player at his position, made one catch for zero yards on six targets as he clearly struggled with his emotions during last week’s loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. The plan will still be for Russell Wilson to get the ball to Pickens on the outside, so Tomlin must find a way for the receiver to put his concerns aside for this monumental task. His eight catches for 89 yards ensured that Pittsburgh’s brilliant defense was not wasted when the Steelers defeated the Ravens in November.
What the Ravens need to do to win: Baltimore will be confident even though the Steelers have won eight of the teams’ past 10 meetings. The Ravens’ 34-17 demolition of the Steelers in December should be a good enough blueprint to help resolve any lingering Lamar Jackson playoff nerves. An offensive plan that takes the pressure off the quarterback’s poor 2-4 postseason record should work: put the ball in Derrick Henry’s gut and make the Steelers tap out. Henry’s 24 carries produced 162 yards in the December game.
Key player: Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens. All Debbie Downers were silenced when Jackson became the first player to throw for over 4,000 yards and rush for over 800 in an NFL season. Oh, and he did that while throwing 41 touchdowns and just four interceptions in his career. Electric.
Prediction: Ravens over Steelers
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1:00 PM EST/6:00 PM GMT)
What the Broncos need to do to win: Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph must slow down Buffalo’s jumbo package. The Bills’ secret sauce this year is the running game or play-action deception behind an elite, extra lineman in Alec Anderson. Denver will likely see a lot of the super sub, as Buffalo tends to run their jumbo heavily against the nickel defense, the formation Joseph usually uses. Stacking the box when faced with six big men with cornerbacks Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss on red alert for a deep pass might just keep the Broncos in the fight.
What the Bills need to do to win: To prevent the Broncos from mounting a serious challenge, Buffalo must put pressure on Bo Nix. When he was roughed up, Denver’s rookie quarterback threw for 4.2 yards per attempt with a 45.1% completion percentage and five touchdowns with five interceptions. Luckily, Buffalo has not one but two of the NFL’s best defensive tackles in Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones to disrupt Nix’s playoff debut.
Key Player: Dion Dawkins, LT, Bills. The veteran Buffalo offensive line is the epitome of consistency. After giving up just three sacks this season – a down year compared to last season – in 959 snaps, he joins the Pro Bowl lineup for the fourth straight year. The 30-year-old pass blocking expertise will give Josh Allen time to pick apart Denver’s strong secondary.
Prediction: Bills on Broncos
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, 4:30 PM EST/9:30 PM GMT)
What the Packers need to do to win: How do you solve a problem like Saquon Barkley? The Packers had no answer as the running back scored three touchdowns in Philadelphia’s 34-29 opening day victory. Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley will hopefully have worked together with safety Xavier McKinney, who spent three years as Barkley’s teammate in New York, to figure out a solution. A plan that can stop Barkley and force the pass is essential, as McKinney is Jalen Hurts’ kryptonite: He has three interceptions in his past two games against the Eagles quarterback.
What Philadelphia must do to win: If Hurts is 100% healthy, Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore should try to outwork Green Bay. The Packers are expecting the run, so the Eagles need to throw the ball early to catch them off guard. AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith will be hungry for the Packers’ weak secondary now that Jaire Alexander is on injured reserve. With the Pack looking to stop Barkley, a one-on-one matchup focusing on disappointing corner Keisean Nixon will pay off.
Key player: Josh Jacobs, RB, Packers. Using the brilliant running back to keep the ball out of Philadelphia’s hands will be vital against a team that wants time in possession – the Eagles have the highest average share in the NFL. Philadelphia’s wide array of weapons will thrive when given the majority of possession, so the trailing Packers must be attentive and hold onto the ball while Jacobs steadily moves the chains.
Prediction: Eagles over Packers
Washington Commanders v Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 8:00 PM EST / Monday 1:00 AM GMT)
What the commanders must do to win: In the most evenly matched wild-card game, Washington will face off against Tampa Bay’s broken defense. Safeties Jordan Whitehead and Christian Izien are out as the game comes too early for cornerback Troy Hill, while cornerback Jamel Dean’s involvement is questionable and safety Antoine Winfield returns from a four-game layoff. The great combination of quarterback Jayden Daniels and receiver Terry McLaurin will hurt the Bucs’ weakened secondary; they just need to make sure they land enough haymakers in what will likely be a high-scoring encounter.
What the Buccaneers need to do to win: Tampa Bay must focus on Washington’s weak defense with breakout rookie Bucky Irving. The Commanders allowed 137.5 rushing yards per game this season, with the league’s worst EPA per rush of 0.12. Irving, meanwhile, is a highly efficient runner working behind a strong offensive line. He leads the NFL with an 80% conversion rate on third down and has a ninth-best rushing effort with 1,122 yards on 207 attempts. The league’s third-highest rusher, Bijan Robinson, needed nearly 100 more attempts for just over 300 additional yards. Irving has shown the damage he can do to a weak defense in recent meetings with Carolina, racking up 263 yards in the two games.
Key player: Marshon Lattimore, CB, Commanders. One of the greatest personal rivalries in football, another battle is about to take place as the former Saints corner returns from injury in a bid to quell Mike Evans. The Bucs receiver has been ejected once, served two one-game suspensions and racked up $100,000 in fines after associating with Lattimore. This fight could lighten the weekend.
Prediction: Commanders over buccaneers
Minnesota Vikings v LA Rams (Monday 8pm EST, Tuesday 1am BST)
What the Vikings need to do to win: The 14-3 Vikings have the most wins of any wild-card team in league history, so they’ll be confident they can take on the Rams. However, they may have to adjust their usual defensive script to get a tough road win, although the game could be moved to Arizona due to the LA wildfires. The problem lies in their preference for blitzing on 38.9% of plays against a master matador in quarterback Matthew Stafford. Most of the time it works, as they pass the passer 25.3% of the time and have 49 sacks. On the other hand, Stafford has a 103.2 passer rating this season with 10 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores must find another way to disrupt Stafford.
What the Rams need to do to win: Sean McVay needs to beat the stuffing out of Sam Darnold. The pressure is on the renaissance quarterback to rebound after his almighty dud against Detroit last week. The best method to stop him is to pick him up, just like the Lions did and just like Los Angeles did in a 30-20 regular season win. Edge defender Jared Verse, the presumptive Defensive Rookie of the Year, is an expert at pressuring QBs and will be hungry to add to the 1.5 sacks and three hits he put on Darnold in October.
Key player: Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings. The sublime receiver has taken Minnesota’s quarterback to heights few thought possible. His breathtaking speed and unparalleled catching ability create a threat so great that hapless defenders are drawn into his path, allowing teammates to roam freely and giving Darnold even more opportunities to show off his cannon of an arm.
Prediction: Rams over Vikings