NFL trend watch: Steelers and Packers up; superstar quarterbacks down

Trending up

Pittsburgh Steelers

“It was a battle. I didn’t feel anybody blinking or guys running away from the challenge,” Mike Tomlin said with a satisfied grunt after the Steelers beat the LA Chargers on Sunday.

Tomlin has forged a team that is expected to struggle to become leaders in the AFC North. He may also have encountered a franchise quarterback in Justin Fields, who is growing increasingly confident. His athleticism also helps to increase the offensive production, so the team’s scales aren’t tipped as heavily in favor of TJ Watt and the Steelers defense. The Steelers outpaced the Chargers on the ground — a key win that saw L.A.’s J.K. Dobbins go from an impressive 10 yards per carry before the game to just three in Pittsburgh — with Fields contributing a rushing touchdown. But it was in the passing game where Fields’ quickness and quickness of mind lifted Pittsburgh. Against L.A.’s blitz, Fields went 8 of 9 for 119 yards and a touchdown with no turnover-worthy plays.

Next up is a juicy run of 1-2 teams: the Colts, Cowboys, and Raiders. Starting with Indianapolis, the Steelers should be confident in roaring to 4-0, as the game looks pretty good from Pittsburgh’s perspective. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has the running backs in Najee Harris and Fields to punish a Colts defense that’s allowing 179 yards per game on the ground. Watt will also be confident in his ability to harass Indy quarterback Anthony Richardson to continue a slump riddled with mistakes and dropped throws.

Green Bay Packers

The arrow points up for a strong defense that will give teams an edge in 2024. The remaining undefeated teams – Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Buffalo and Seattle – show that overwhelming strength, innovation from the left and/or two high safeties play can be crucial.

Another team hot on that group’s heels are the rising Packers. There’s praise to be had for Matt LaFleur’s reinvention of Malik Willis into a functional quarterback. But even more praise should be given to the numbers Jeff Hafley’s defense is putting up.

Green Bay is the NFL’s best defensive playmaker, with the most turnovers (nine) and turnover differential (+7). The takeaways have also been at an even pace, with three in every game, and the Packers have already matched their interception total from last season with seven.

Xavier McKinney has three. The safety was acquired from the Giants as a Swiss Army knife for Hafley to move around at will, constantly changing what the offense sees. So far, that aggressive approach is working. McKinney has played as a strong safety, post safety, linebacker and even on the defensive line. Green Bay’s pass rush is working, too. Against the Packers, Jalen Hurts was constantly pressured, Anthony Richardson was distracted and Will Levis recorded a whopping eight sacks. A key factor in Sunday’s win over the Titans was Green Bay’s improvement in stopping the run, after allowing more than 100 yards on the ground in Weeks 1 and 2. Less rushing (just 11 attempts and 33 yards) has meant more passing from Levis and even more opportunities for the league’s most opportunistic backfield to cash in. It’s trickle-down economics that should pay dividends for a postseason run.

Downward trend

The superstar quarterback

Week Three was a less-than-stellar weekend in a less-than-stellar season for an uncomfortable number of the NFL’s most prominent quarterbacks. We have to start with the elephant in the room. The Dallas Cowboys are paying Dak Prescott $231 million in guaranteed money over the next four years and are 1-2 after a sloppy output in consecutive home losses. Does that feel like a good price? His landmark contract could be a high point in overpaying. And then there’s Cleveland’s $230 million in guarantees for Deshaun Watson, which represents a dismal failure of team-building — and character — for the 1-2 Browns.

Elsewhere, No. 1 overall picks are also damaging the Big QB brand. Of the nine active players in the NFL, five have been drafted (Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield) and two are backups (Bryce Young and Jameis Winston), leaving just two with a win to show for it (Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford). The shine on this current crop appears to be fading fast, as “generational” quarterbacks like Lawrence and Burrow (both also in the mega-money stakes of $200 million and $218 million guaranteed, respectively) are without a win with Their playoff chances are already faltering.

Lawrence’s credentials took the biggest hit Monday night. Burrow has at least played in a Super Bowl and has thrown five touchdowns and zero interceptions this season. Yes, Lawrence is playing on a flawed Jacksonville team. But so is Stafford, who defeated the San Francisco 49ers without elite receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua and six injured offensive linemen.

Questions should be asked about the weight of the crown on Lawrence. The Jags’ decision to temporarily rename their stadium “TrEverBank” has increasingly exposed his shortcomings. Forcing Lawrence to be a superstar when, beyond his imposing stature, he comes across as an unassuming, reserved figure feels like a scheme designed to boost the Jaguars’ relatively low market value, rather than help their prized asset reach its potential.

The picture gets even bleaker with Young in Carolina. He’s made just 18 starts this career, but it already appears he doesn’t have much of a future with the Panthers. Does he just not have it, or has suffering through 14 losses last season dented his confidence? The Bears should reconsider how they treat their star in light of Young’s struggles. Williams looked much better throwing the ball against the Colts, and he crushed the Bears’ single-game passing yardage total by a rookie. But his three turnovers, one of which was a terrible call on a late throw, were far less encouraging. Rookie mistakes are to be expected. But repeated rookie mistakes over the course of a season, caused by playing behind the Bears’ poor offensive line, can cause lasting damage. Chicago was never going to the Super Bowl this year, so why not leave Williams behind a veteran he can learn from (which would require signing someone other than Tyson Bagent, of course)? It worked for Patrick Mahomes.