NFL trend watch: big passing days appear to be on the way back

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Passing pyrotechnics

This has been a season defined by defensive minds and bodies keeping the quarterbacks quiet. The paltry numbers were so alarming that veteran analyst Mel Kiper provided the best take on the year calling for a ban on two-high security. Instead of shaking his fist at the cloud cover, Kiper just needed some patience for the offenses to adapt to this new climate, which they finally did in Week 5.

Sepia tones were washed away by the glorious Technicolor of wide receivers weaving through backfields and sprinting through slack-jawed defenders. Rusted highlight reels come back to life with a Ja’marr Chase 70-yard catch-and-run here, a Kirk Cousins ​​home run OT score there and a whole lot of madness in Burrow v Jackson, with an undercard of Lawrence v Flacco to match.

Passing touchdowns totaled 46, a high for any week so far, with one score a cut above the rest: CJ Stroud’s sweeping brush to Nico Collins. Houston’s tandem was in total harmony as Stroud sent the ball 59 yards straight into the receiver’s arms. It was made all the more striking by the score that helped the Texans earn an emphatic victory over another AFC contender, the Buffalo Bills. But the victory, like Collins, came at a cost suffered a hamstring injury. Luckily for Houston, their next opponents, the inert New England Patriots, offer them a chance to get by without Collins and get to 5-1.

Denver Broncos

As the defense has been getting things in order lately, Vance Joseph’s main unit needs some love to propel the Broncos to a third straight win. The Orange Crush have the power to assert their authority from kick-off, as evidenced by wins against the Bucs and Jets (both of whom were held to single-digit points totals) and by excellent set-piece play. The Raiders were riding with a 10-3 lead and were on the Broncos’ five-yard line on Sunday when Gardner Minshew’s pass was caught in the end zone … by Denver cornerback Patrick Surtain II. His 100-yard pick six lit up the touch paper for a ridiculous run of 31 unanswered points for Denver.

It’s impressive that Joseph is doing all this with just one first-round pick, Surtain, on his defense. With only one star to call on, Joseph has leaned on everything he’s learned since being fired as Denver’s head coach in 2018 and struggled at times last season. Without a dominant pass rusher, he takes a simple approach to maximize what players do best, while leaning on his excellent pass coverage – cornerback Riley Moss is enjoying a breakout season opposite Surtain – and blitzing at one of the highest levels in the NFL .

Through five games, the Broncos defense now has a league-high expected points (EPA) per pass rating of -0.3. That makes sense considering they’re limiting opposing quarterbacks to just 135 yards passing per game. At this rate, a first winning season for the Broncos since 2016 is far from a gamble.

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Cleveland Browns

It is fairly safe to assume that Karl Marx would have conflated professional sports with religion as the opiate for the masses. It certainly reads well when placed within Marx’s text. “Sports fanaticism is the sigh of the oppressed being, the heart of a heartless world and the soul of soulless circumstances.” Unless you happen to watch the Browns. Cleveland is no balm for suffering: 0-16 in 2017, one last division title in 1989, one playoff win in 30 years, Johnny Manziel. There is no hope here. At least that will never happen as long as Deshaun Watson is under center.

The 1-4 Browns willingly struck a fully guaranteed $270 million deal with Watson, who had been accused of multiple sexual assaults, in hopes he could transform the team’s chances on the field. But his play on Sunday was as terrible as ever.

Watson’s inability to launch an attack allowed the point to be reached on Sunday from first and goal on the two-metre line. A false start gave the Browns an immediate five-yard lead, then a timeout wasted after they failed to get a play-off, then Watson took one of seven sacks on the day after receiving the ball had held for a long time. Two incomplete passes later, followed by a delay of game when the intent was clearly to go for the touchdown, and Cleveland had kicked a 31-yard field goal. The pained disbelief etched on coach Kevin Stefanski’s face as Watson approached him on the sideline said it all.

Jets from New York

When the New York Jets traded for Aaron Rodgers, they thought they were getting a quarterback who could handle the defensive pressure. After his worst performance yet in Sunday’s loss to the undefeated Minnesota Vikings that cost head coach Robert Saleh his job, he appears to be in serious decline. Rodgers was slow to react to man coverage, his radar off as he missed throws, took avoidable sacks and struggled to escape pressure. What he did offer was a terrible interception when his receivers were locked in tight coverage. Accuracy used to be Rodgers’ calling card; without that – and without a running game (the Jets’ fourteen attempts on Sunday yielded just 36 yards) – it’s hard to see where his team goes from here.

Rodgers dropped back 54 times on Sunday and gained just 4.5 yards per play with a pick six and two other interceptions. These struggles are partly due to the 40-year-old, but they also speak to a lack of creativity from coordinator Nathaniel Hackett – the Jets are the only team without a play action of more than 20 yards in 2024. That needs to change to give the team a opportunity, considering how well the defense is playing.

Now that Saleh’s time is up, GM Joe Douglas must also be close to the exit if the Jets continue to look like they’ll earn a sixth losing season under his tenure. Why not bet the house that receiver Davante Adams is the missing piece to light Rodgers on fire? He’s already sticking his thumb in the air: The Jets need to pick up the former Packer and give their offense a chance to find some cohesion.