NFL playoff race: Vikings and Lions vie for inside track to Super Bowl LIX
Game of the week
Minnesota Vikings (14-2) vs. Detroit Lions (14-2)
The last game of the regular season and it all comes down to this. Two titans battle for the NFC North crown, home field advantage all the way to the Super Bowl and the ivory tower of a first-round bye. The loser gets the fifth seed and a stomach-churning road game in the wild card round.
Detroit’s injured roster needs the winner’s rest week more, but will this be one title fight too many for Dan Campbell’s team? The Vikings certainly feel like they have the edge on a nine-game winning streak, but six of those have been by one score and four have been by three points or less. If there’s one offense that can keep pace with an electric opponent in a firefight, it’s Jared Goff and his unyielding Lions.
What the Vikings need to do to win: Minnesota needs to stop Jahmyr Gibbs. The running back is a crucial part of Detroit’s success. In his two most recent games since David Montgomery’s season-ending injury, Gibbs has excelled in an expanded role, gaining 100 or more rushing and 40 or more receiving yards in both games. The only other game in which he achieved this goal: a 31-29 win over the Vikings in October.
It’s vital for Minnesota’s defense and especially elite linebacker Blake Cashman to set boundaries and overwhelm Gibbs in space. His cuts and shifts in momentum are deadly if allowed to develop. The figures confirm this. He has 23 rushes of 15 or more yards, second only to Saquon Barkley with 25, on 118 fewer attempts than Philadelphia’s MVP contender. Gibbs is also the first player since 2018 to average 2.5 yards per carry before contact and five after contact in the same year.
What the Lions need to do to win: Detroit needs to keep Jameson Williams’ hot streak going. Over the past two weeks, against the single-high safety looks of Chicago and San Francisco, Williams has had two of his best days in the NFL, rushing for 143 yards and a touchdown, then 77 and another score. ‘That’s Jameson’s potential [Williams] has to do with this offense and it’s nice to see a post versus single-high like that,” Ben Johnson said of Williams after the win over the Bears. “It does wonders for our offense going into the end of the season and the postseason here to put those kinds of things on tape.” The Lions would be wise to continue sending Williams deep to expand Minnesota’s coverage, which would open up catching lanes for Gibbs underneath. This manipulation is essential to find any weaknesses in Brian Flores’ excellent defense.
Rising: Mike Evans
How do you sum up the genius of Mike Evans? The mind wanders to the once a great swimmer in that Guinness ad racing against the clock, the champion who – with a little help from his buddy – always hits his target. The swimmer’s glory days have faded, but his adoring audiences still flock to see him beat the clock year after year after year. He is inevitable. That comparison alone does a disservice to the 31-year-old, as the Carolina Panthers can attest — especially Caleb Farley.
“But I’m getting older,” says Evans. “One day I will lose.” Don’t worry. Baker Mayfield knows the score. There’s no need to run a route when you can casually lean on your 6-foot-4 frame to first beat the feeling out of a defender and then outrun his swinging efforts for a one-yard touchdown. Another unstoppable afternoon yielded another 97 yards, he now has just 85 to go for an incredible eleventh consecutive season with a total of over 1,000. While they missed three games due to a hamstring injury.
Every Bucs fan’s fingers will be crossed for the big man, although Tampa Bay’s need to topple New Orleans to make the postseason could erase much of the mystique. Make sure you catch his victory lap on Sunday.
Falling: Denver Broncos
How Sean Payton would like to replay the final stages of Denver’s loss to the Los Angeles Charges in December. Since they seemed to be sailing into the playoffs midway through the third quarter, with a 24-13 lead, the Broncos and especially the defense came up short. LA rattled off three touchdowns without answer to force another win in the game against the Bengals. The defense then continued their miserable streak by failing to force a single punt in regular regulation against Cincinnati.
One of the league’s best units playing itself out of shape, combined with Sean Payton’s losing conservative playmaking, has put a lot of pressure on Denver. They now have to beat a Kansas City Chiefs team, most likely with Carson Wentz at quarterback. On paper this sounds simple enough, but while Andy Reid is still in control of the game script, this will be anything but for Denver. The Miami Dolphins or, somewhat unbelievably, the Bengals themselves, after struggling for large parts of the season, could sneak into the playoffs if they win, and the Broncos continue to play with a serious case of FOMO.
Race for No. 1 draft pick
Cleveland, New York Giants, Tennessee, New England. After what should have been an unwavering hold on the top pick, Drew Lock conspired to take the New York Giants out of contention. As we enter the final week, the NFL’s rum quartet all share a 3-13 record, although the New England Patriots are the first pick as this happens on the schedule. However, there is a small chance they move out of first place when they take on the Buffalo Bills, who plan to use a “mix” of starters and backups.
Tennessee, Cleveland and the Giants, picked in that order, will face Houston, Baltimore and Philadelphia, respectively. If the Texans continue to hit rock bottom like they did on Christmas Day, the Titans have every chance to win. It could be the Browns who benefit from this, as the Ravens need to win to ensure they claim the AFC North. It would be another hopeful opportunity for Cleveland to hasten the process of moving on from the Deshaun Watson era by selecting a starting quarterback. Unfortunately, Watson will still be on the team next year after restructuring his contract to change the cap hit from $73 million to $37 million in 2025. The logic shifts the hit to the future, when the cap is bigger, will this will be less painful for the franchise. so they can spend money now in free agency. How the Browns navigate having the quarterback on the roster for two seasons while essentially asking him not to come anywhere near the team remains to be seen. Both moves are necessary evils in a sad saga that could potentially end.