NFL playoff race: Lamar Jackson and Ravens out to snap Pittsburgh hoodoo
Game of the week
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) vs. Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
The battle for the AFC North nears its climax as two bitter rivals battle it out for sacred home field advantage in the playoffs. If the Pittsburgh Steelers continue their hot streak and earn a fifth straight win in Baltimore, the division will be theirs, while the Ravens can clinch a playoff spot with a win and see a path to the top of the league as the team of Mike Tomlin falls from the Chiefs of Bengals to end the season.
Both teams will feel like they have an advantage over the other, as the Ravens have flattered to deceive at times (see: losses to the Raiders and Browns), while the Steelers have struggled to move the ball without George Pickens. John Harbaugh’s team has a total offensive force that rivals Buffalo and Detroit in efficiency and explosiveness. The incredible tandem of quarterback Lamar Jackson and running back Derrick Henry can tie even the best defenses in knots on their day. But will the stars align? Pittsburgh’s brutal pass rush will still be confident they can bring out the bad in Baltimore.
What the Steelers need to do to win: Pickens should be back in the lineup. However, the star receiver has yet to return to practice, so the Steelers will need to lean on the running game without losing confidence in Wilson’s deep passing threat during his significant absence. Last week’s box score suggested Wilson was seriously struggling, but his receivers were trapped in tight coverage all day by a passing defense that gave up 227 yards/game, second-fewest in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Ravens cough up the second-highest total, with 323. The offensive plan must take advantage of Wilson’s deep threat, but find a balance to exploit that weakness when it counts.
Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith must find a way to get the running game going while also involving Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren in the passing attack. Against the Bengals they combined for 10 catches and over 100 yards, but against the Eagles they each had a catch for a total of 10 yards. The most crucial outcome of finding success with running is chewing the clock. The defense started brightly against Philadelphia, but seemed completely gassed as they were sent out again and again. TJ Watt in particular will need rest to battle Jackson and Henry, as he is dealing with an ankle injury.
What the Ravens need to do to win: The Ravens need to clean up their act and take a level-headed approach to turn around their rotten form against the Steelers. With just one win in the past nine meetings, Baltimore must remain focused on avoiding game-killing turnovers and penalties that made the difference when they were defeated by Pittsburgh in November. Harbaugh’s team committed 12 penalties, turned the ball over three times and missed two field goals, while Jackson had three balls hit at the line of scrimmage and was sacked twice.
If and when the mistakes are ironed out, Jackson – 1-4 against Pittsburgh – will have to solve Mike Tomlin’s defense. One way to do this is to utilize Justice Hill’s speed and sublime route running out of the backfield so that the more predictable targets for Mark Andrews can be used more effectively in bits and pieces for chunk plays and touchdowns. Mixing tight end Isaiah Likely in the slot or out wide has the potential to help break Pittsburgh’s will as well. The final piece of the puzzle is to replicate Philadelphia’s success by dominating time of possession. They managed just 24 minutes to Pittsburgh’s 36 in Week 11.
Rising in playoff race: Philadelphia Eagles
Suggesting that a 12-2 team on a 10-game winning streak is on the rise feels a little late… yet in their dominant win over Pittsburgh last week, the Eagles shifted into much higher offensive gear, especially in the passing game , than had been seen before. A scary upgrade that will shake up the rest of the league a bit after QB Jalen Hurts hit his top receiver, AJ Brown, for double-digit targets for the first game since Week 1, while giving second-in-command Devonta Smith double-digit targets for the first time this season. They even finished with eerily similar numbers of a touchdown, each with Brown going for 110 yards and Smith for 109.
The No. 1 seed isn’t theirs to lose yet, though, but they’re hanging around with purpose as Detroit’s roster continues to expand with the Minnesota Vikings also challenging at 12-2. However, the Lions will face the Vikings in the final week of the season after Minnesota faces the Green Bay Packers in Week 17. The Eagles can put some pressure on their first-round rivals with a win over Washington on Sunday. A sweep of the Commanders would come close to an incredible 15-2 finish considering their cake-walk against the Cowboys and Giants to end the season.
Fall in playoff race: Seattle Seahawks
Seattle will be relieved if Geno Smith starts against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. They definitely need him. After Smith left last week’s thrashing of the Packers with a knee injury, Sam Howell came in, averaging 1.71 yards on 14 passing attempts. Even with the starter, the signs look doubtful after the Seahawks finally took control of their own destiny and quickly turned it over to the surging Los Angeles Rams. They are tied with their NFC West peers at 8-6, but have the weaker record in the conference and could slip back a game if the Rams handle the New York Jets.
The Vikings feel very much like a prove-it match for Mike Macdonald’s team and any assumption of defeat is premature after reeling off four straight wins this month. The question is who Seattle actually is: the strong December defensive operation that can pressure Sam Darnold, or the pushovers that went 1-5 midway through the season?
Race for No. 1 draft pick
In the raging tire fire of the NFL’s ineptitude, there’s a bowl game of sorts on Sunday. The 3-11 Jaguars meet the 2-10 Raiders in a matchup that could have dramatic implications for the 2025 draft order. A loss for Las Vegas keeps them in pole position for the top rookie quarterback – Shadeur Sanders? – to turn around the ailing pirate ship, while a loss to the Jaguars would keep them in the running to sign the top non-QB, in this case Heisman Trophy-winning cornerback Travis Hunter at pick three. In the current order they are ranked at numbers 1 and 4 respectively, but the eventualities are open enough that the Raiders could finish 10th with a win, followed by two more, to end a dismal year strongly. Stranger things have happened.