As the regular season comes to a close, every Friday we'll take a look at a game that will likely impact the playoff race, along with the teams whose fortunes rise and fall. And not to neglect the also-rans, we'll see which teams are in the hunt for next year's No. 1 pick.
Game of the week
Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) vs. Dallas Cowboys (9-3)
Story of the season: Sometimes the obvious choice is the right choice. The 10-2 Eagles meeting with the 9-3 Cowboys in Dallas will help decide the No. 1 seed in the NFC, while a mixed bag of scenarios could result in both teams securing a playoff spot. If the Eagles bounce back from last week's humiliation, their soft schedule puts them in the driver's seat for now, but lose and the race opens up significantly. The juiciest subplot is how linebacker Shaquille Leonard, who chooses to sign for the Eagles instead of the Cowboys, will fuel this bitter rivalry. As Cowboys owner Jerry Jones put it, this is a “unique time.” Dallas is annoyed, Philadelphia is annoyed, sparks will fly.
What the Eagles need to do to win: “Ensure that all members of your game-day staff understand that their role does not extend to being involved in game-day disputes,” read a memo to teams on Wednesday about Philadelphia's chief of security being fired after the 49ers' loss . This is what can happen when a coach shows his team a rival team talking trash about them, tells him to take it personally and then turns his mouth on the opponent before kickoff. Even poor Dom DiSandro tries to pick a fight with an opposing linebacker. Nick Sirianni must accept that although he successfully operates on such a highly tense emotional level, it is naive to think that his team consists of a bunch of 53 Michael Jordans and will immediately respond well to such an intense atmosphere. Sirianni seems to have an inferiority complex that needs to be reversed as his team is anything but. Coach aggressively, but in the way you call plays in the game, instead of distractedly kicking fourth-and-2 when two are down. On the field, the defense has to show up after a display involving tepid receiver Jauan Jennings on Deebo Samuel Jr. seemed. Beating CeeDee Lamb will be a challenge, but stopping another avalanche on the ground is possible if linebacker Zach Cunningham returns to the starting lineup . But make sure Leonard, who cited Sirianni's time as offensive coordinator of the Indianapolis Colts as a reason for joining, gets into the game early and often to establish your strength. Let the stump simmer and irritate, and then show why he chose you, don't tell.
What the Cowboys need to do to win: Simply put, the Cowboys need to find their best performance yet in what has been a very good but not great season. The record against their NFC rivals reads poorly after being embarrassed by the 49ers and losing to the Eagles. They need to make stopping receiver AJ Brown their focus, throw a blanket over him and make sure there is always a safety there so that when he inevitably makes a grab, he doesn't do too much damage. On offense, targeting the Eagles' lumpy secondary worked for the 49ers, so Mike McCarthy should figure out ways to let Dak Prescott shine, but the quarterback will also have to improvise. Some of the best moments of a great season have come when he escaped the pocket and searched deep downfield for CeeDee Lamb and company. But it's Lamb (on pace for 1,700 yards this season) who has the athleticism to bury a defense that looked shattered against San Francisco and has now given up the league's second-most passing touchdowns at 27.
Risers and fallers in the play-off races
Rising: Green Bay Packers (6-6, currently No. 7 in NFC)
The Packers cemented their status as a serious threat to shake up the playoffs with their dominant win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Jordan Love's continued growth as a quarterback was the most important factor. He took the Packers to a lead from the start and never let up, as his once unpredictable play has found accuracy and balance to match the fireworks. The Chief's stout defense tried to knock him off his perch, but he avoided pressure like a veteran in the pocket, giving him time to mesh with receiver Christian Watson to devastating effect. His turn from game-wrecker to winner is reflected in the statline: 843 passing yards and eight touchdowns in three straight wins. Matt LaFleur's patience has paid off by putting his team in the final NFC wild card spot, which now sits at 6-6. It's unlikely he'll falter from here, as no Tram the Packers have yet to face has a winning record at this point.
Falling: Kansas City Chiefs (8-4, currently No. 3 in AFC)
Green Bay and Kansas City are like ships passing in the night. While the former improved their play-off credentials, the latter took their shot at the AFC's number one spot. Especially Christian Watson's day his second touchdown highlighted how low the Chiefs offense was – how Patrick Mahomes would dominate with a long, powerful route runner who could stretch the field and grab the contested balls at his disposal. However, Travis Kelce is still there and will need a lot more ball against the Buffalo Bills to quickly turn the game in their favor. However, an unknown lack of calm has crept in. The Bills will focus on winning at all costs with their season on the line, a focus that could cause mental mistakes like Green Bay did. Mahomes seemed unnecessarily frustrated with a lack of pass interference calls against the Packers, but when it was ultimately ruled they had overshot the mark, he made a bad throw. and was intercepted. A drive that could have resulted in a first lead of the night with five minutes remaining drifted away, as did his pass over an unwitting Skyy Moore and into the arms of Keisean Nixon. Isiah Pacheco's ejection with a minute to go while carrying the attack on his back was less crucial and more boneheaded. A quick rebound would be aided by cleaning up the mistakes.
Race for the number 1 pick
With the Carolina Panthers showing little to no improvement following the departure of Frank Reich, it's safe to assume the New Orleans Saints will keep the Chicago Bears locked for next year's top draft pick. Winning the NFC South is still on the table, but the motivation of avoiding an embarrassing loss at the end of the season could be a bigger factor. Elsewhere we have the 4-8 New York Jets. A five-game losing streak has them currently picking No. 6, but there is a capacity to go much higher. Aaron Rodgers is not returning, Tim Boyle has been mercifully released, Zach Wilson returns as the starter despite a friend in the building claiming he is “reluctant” to do so and Brett Rypien has been signed as a potential fifth signal caller of the season. This mountain of self-inflicted chaos means wins against the Texans and Dolphins are hard to fathom, leading to a potential pick around No. 3. Can Wilson spare Rodgers from a rookie QB hanging in the shadows?