NFL playoff race: can Denver continue improbable turnaround in Houston?
As the regular season comes to a close, every Friday we'll take a look at a game that will likely impact the playoff race, along with the teams whose fortunes rise and fall. And not to neglect the also-rans, we'll see which teams are in the hunt for next year's No. 1 pick.
Game of the week
Denver Broncos (6-5) vs. Houston Texans (6-5)
Story of the season: Think back to September: Did anyone really think this game would be important in the playoff race? Could either team say they seriously had a chance? Maybe not, but they can now, because they're both right in the bubble. They were all last in their divisions a year ago and needed some serious help. Why even focus on last season, in October the Broncos were 1-5 and should have been 0-6 if the Bears hadn't imploded spectacularly after leading 28-7. Yet here we are, even after the vain Dolphins decimated them 70-20. The difference since their abysmal start has been Vance Joseph's defense. The coordinator took some time to get up to speed, but they now lead the league in creating turnovers with 15 on their five-game winning streak while allowing just over 16 points per game. Houston has had a slightly smoother road thanks to (rookie?) quarterback CJ Stroud. Aggressive, averse to mistakes and has an unlikely starting receiver in Tank Dell. DeMeco Ryan's stellar debut as head coach was highlighted by Houston's nail-biting victory over the vastly outmatched Cincinnati Bengals. He is now the second favorite in Vegas to win coach of the year, and for good reason. However, Ryans will still be smart after missing an opportunity to get back at the AFC West leading Jaguars in their 24-21 defeat on Sunday, while he was furious that his team has handed the Carolina Panthers their only win to date Worried. Just 390 feet in the air proves that Stroud is capable of (and should be forgiven for) a bad day, one he absolutely must avoid to keep the Texans in the hunt.
What the Broncos need to do to win: Joseph needs to keep the creativity flowing in the backfield. Get shutdown corner Patrick Surtain and safety Justin Simmons all over the field to confuse Stroud and force mistakes. If they can confuse Patrick Mahomes, Sean Payton will be confident his vaunted unit can dominate. On offense Courtland Sutton was excellent in the red zonethe effective, but unspectacular running game, and Wilson must remain conservative, continue to advance the ball downfield and then allow the quarterback to find his pay-dirt Houdini.
What the Texans need to do to win: Denver's defense is damn, well, sort of. This is truly Stroud's acid test, because without an effective running game, they have one choice: throw, throw and throw some more. Houston has the second-best passing attack in the league in terms of total yards, and without being too disparaging to Washington, it really is the best when you add in the Commanders' thirteen interceptions and the fact that the Texans have almost 100 fewer attempts to have. Abandoning a season built on this lightning strike of production is not an option. Stroud has shown he can already beat very good defenses in the Steelers, Jaguars and Saints. They match up well with the Broncos defensively, as Denver prefers to run the ball on nearly half of their plays, which fits perfectly with what the Texans do best. They rank third in opponent rush yards per attempt, with just 3.6 yards per carry. Wilson throwing from third and long in 2023 is no longer the dangerous situation it once was for oppositions.
Risers and fallers in the play-off races
Rising: Los Angeles Rams (5-6, currently No. 9 in NFC)
The Rams destroyed the Cardinals on Sunday, with leading receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua combining for 45 yards. The return of running back Kyren Williams, who exploded for 143 yards, adds an x-factor, as Sean McVay has missed as relying on Matt Stafford to provide everything on offense is a dangerous amount of pressure for a 35-year stretch. old quarterback. McVay has rediscovered his magic to put together a team that looked like a sad version of his former Super Bowl winners and now have them back on track from 3-6. A fired-up McVay with a dynamic running attack will spell trouble for everyone if Stafford stays healthy.
Declining: Buffalo Bills (6-6, currently No. 10 in AFC)
The AFC is fiercely competitive in the wild card race and as such, many predicted the Buffalo Bills would win the Super Bowl. Now their stock is plummeting after a brutal loss to the Eagles, where Josh Allen had perhaps the best game of his season. In the NFC they would clinch a wild card spot, but Kansas City at home and then the Cowboys away (they average 41 points per game at home). No, thank you. They're certainly not out of the race yet, but losses to the Jets, Patriots and Broncos aren't what championships are built on.
Race for the number 1 pick
Interesting. While the Chicago Bears are 4-8, they lead the race for the top pick thanks to trading for DJ Moore last season, a move that looks masterful as Carolina's No. 1 pick over Chicago. The Panthers are 1-10 with their No. 1 pick this year, Bryce Young, floundering. One look at their schedule and it's tough, but there are still chances to win and upset Chicago: the Saints if Derek Carr remains Dunk's Sir Dink (especially if Jameis Winston joins the fray), two meetings with a Tampa team that has won one of their past seven and if sharpshooter Jordan Love isn't on target, they have some hope there too. The Arizona Cardinals might just beat them at 2-10 in the race to the bottom. Returning quarterback Kyler Murray is struggling and their defense ranks second in the league, allowing an average of 27 points per game. Next: Steelers, 49ers, Bears, Eagles, Seahawks. Unless Murray improves, this could be a close run thing. Special mention to New England, which is still very much in the mix at 2-9 but at least has the Jets in Week 17, dreaming of the sweet relief of the end of the season.