As the regular season comes to a close, every Friday we'll take a look at a game that will likely impact the playoff race, along with the teams whose fortunes rise and fall. And not to neglect the also-rans, we'll see which teams are in the hunt for next year's No. 1 pick.
Game of the week
Cleveland Browns (9-5) vs. Houston Texans (8-6)
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Story of the season: The postseason is quickly approaching as two AFC contenders meet on Christmas Eve, with dire consequences for their playoff chances, while the quarterback conveyor belt hums frantically in the background, throwing out subplots with abandon. Joe Flacco's Cleveland coda continues apace after a charged comeback lifted the Browns to nine wins, a win in Houston and they're all just in the hat in January. Meanwhile, DeMeco Ryans continues to shine in Houston. The head coach's bold call to back 35-year-old Case Keenum in his first start in two years paid off big time against Tennessee, while the Browns can claim an assist for inspiring Ryans with Flacco's revival. Houston looks like the eighth seed, but another win will take them into the hallowed top seven.
What the Browns need to do to win: The focus must remain on protecting Flacco, who turns 39 next month. Any misstep could lead to catastrophe, but the big men have done a great job protecting the quarterback so far. Flacco is unlocking David Njoku's potential: The tight end has nearly 200 yards and three touchdowns in the past two games, up from 40 yards per game before. Keep it up. Defensively, the backfield must continue to swarm to take advantage of Keenum's mistakes. The league's best passing defense – giving up just 158.9 yards per game – can forge an easy lead by stifling this avenue. Myles Garrett and the quick release of the pass to the backup will also lead to mistakes or at worst a lot of lost yardage.
What the Texans need to do to win: CJ Stroud will miss another week, so it is paramount that Keenum maintains his level following the overtime win. Nico Collins' prospects for return are looking brighter as he returns to training on a limited basis. Having his talent on the field would be a difference maker. Where the Texans can make gains is on the field. Running back Devin Singletary's efficiency was important to the win last week. They need to run the ball despite an explosive aerial attack to keep Cleveland guessing. Stay aggressive, don't call plays to limit mistakes; the Browns are brilliant, but on the road they concede an average of 30 points per game, compared to 13 at home. On defense, blitzing Flacco and pressuring running back Jerome Ford could lead to turnovers for the former if he unleashes 40 or more pitches for a third straight game.
Risers and fallers in the play-off races
Rising: Baker Mayfield
The playoff spots are starting to be gobbled up by those sitting up front as, excluding the high-flying 49ers after Week 14, the Cowboys and Eagles joined them in the NFC and the Ravens secured their spot in the AFC side of the draft. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield's historic afternoon at Lambeau Field sees his stock as high as it has been since a playoff win in 2020. He has found a home in Florida while clicking with the talented roster around him. The box score in the win over Green Bay was impressive, 381 yards and four touchdowns, but the showcase of his arm talent was even better. According to Next Gen Stats, Mayfield threw a touchdown to all four levels of the field for the third time in his career, the most of any quarterback since 2016. Offensive coordinator Dave Canales has a signal caller with the confidence of a franchise leader and shows he can come up with a game script that can maximize Mayfield's strengths while minimizing his accuracy issues. The Strike from 19 yards for Mike Evans showed Canales beating Green Bay by using Chris Godwin's route to shift the safety and expose Evans. They have the NFC South at just the right time.
Fall: Jacksonville Jaguars
Everything is coming undone for the Jacksonville Jaguars, even in the front office. Last week, ESPN reported that a former employee faces up to 30 years in prison after pleading guilty to stealing more than $22 million from the franchise over four years. Amit Patel used his position as manager of the team's virtual credit cards, rented private jets, joined a country club and bought a condo in Florida, while unfortunately using “99% of the embezzled money” to chase his losses while he struggled with a “severe gambling addiction”. Another attack on the NFL's gambling policy as they failed to spot a club employee, who was not allowed to bet on any sport, who regularly participated in fantasy tournaments with buy-ins of $24,000 according to ESPN's sources.. .the definition of hiding in plain sight. On the field, the injury bug has bitten a new quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. CJ Beathard has plenty of inspiration to draw from successful backups, but wide receivers, or the lack thereof, may be a bigger problem. There's no Christian Kirk to call on, Zay Jones is questionable to play and Calvin Ridley has started to flatline, so it's hard to imagine how a second-string quarterback will move the chains against Tampa Bay with any gusto while the Colts and Texans are trying to seize control of the AFC South. Jacksonville's running game is also in decline: Travis Etienne has carried the ball nine more times so far than last season and has 288 fewer total yards. Lawrence gave his offensive golf carts for Christmas, a new set of irons from Etienne, improbably.
Race for number 1 pick
You asked for miracles Theo, I'll give you the NFC South. The Carolina Panthers finally pulled off a win that was as painful for a Chicago fan as extended season Die Hard references, thanks to sharing a division with the Atlanta Falcons. A promising day from Bryce Young, whose 90-yard drive in the pouring rain sealed a 9-7 victory and a 2-11 record, has the potential to shift the draft order significantly. Playing without the chance of being replaced next year, the quarterback can continue to rewrite a rookie year to quickly forget with strong finishes against Green Bay, Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. They're all winnable, but the Packers and Jaguars are all the more likely because of more immediate struggles than Carolina's: the fear of expecting to succeed but actually stubbing your toe. A win over both could allow the Patriots and Cardinals, who are waiting in the wings at 3-11, to overtake the Panthers. Interim head coach Chris Tabor has done just that some is in the game as a former Chicago employee now working on his resume for the full-time position in Carolina. The pleasure of sticking it to your former boss by winning will certainly be immense, but is this the way anyone really thinks? Unfortunately probably not. However, if Tabor's post-victory press conference consists of an extended Simon game played with a suspiciously hammy German accent, we stand corrected.